OBAMA’S VISIT: WHAT THIS MEANS FOR INDIA

The Obamas have danced their way in to the hearts of normal, average, middle class Indians. Their grace, humility & affection seemed genuine and all these traits are weakness of an average India. Obama’s speech to the parliament will without an element of doubt go down as one of the most historic speeches ever and this trip may well redefine the US-India relationship.

But many skeptics still believe that United States has gained more from this trip and India has got carried away BY Obama’s kind words. Some cynics feel that the United States showed the UNSC carrot and India gave in. So has India really got carried away? The answer is simply ‘no’.

The trip has three broad features which I shall discuss one by one.
Economic & trade partnership- Skeptics believe that this trip was largely about businesses deals which will benefit United States and India has nothing to gain. Now looking at job creations in the United States through the $10 billion business deals is just one side of the story. Primarily India is paying to get access to technology in multiple sectors which so essential to keep the brisk growth rate of India’s economy on track. United States has an edge when it comes to technology and India is simply going to benefit by getting access to it. Partnership in areas like energy, defence, space, agriculture & manufacturing will bolster the capability & capacity of Indian companies which in turn will also create more employment in India & enhance our GDP growth. And if these partnership are utilized to its fullest potential than India can also touch 10% GDP growth from the current 8% growth. India needs the expertise in areas like agriculture which employs more than half the population and could also help in creating another green revolution which could do wonders for our agriculture sector.

Till now the US had restricted technology transfer to India but with post this trip US will lift those restrictions. With India getting access to technology especially in areas like agriculture, space, defence & infrastructure will only enhance our growth rate as mentioned earlier.

Now many critics say that there was no need to buy defense equipments from the United States given that we can get better deals from Russia & France. India’s increased defense purchase from United States doesn’t mean that it will stop buying from other countries. Russia is still India biggest defense supplier followed by Israel. United States traditionally had a very small pie in the Indian defense segment. And there should not be any fear of not getting access to the defense technology in the future because that will hurt US companies much more. This is something which the United States realized during the recession.

The Pakistan issue- To expect United States to impose sanctions or take some ultra tough measures against Pakistan for not acting against the perpetrators of 26/11 is not going happen. For United States priority is Afghanistan and for that it needs the support of Pakistan. And any direct involvement of the US in eliminating terror groups in Pakistan may also lead to a back lash and jeopardise US’s Afghan-Pak strategy. But on the first two days of the trip Obama did not mince any words against Pakistan for the 26/11 which also drew huge criticism.But it was on the last day that Obama said it a loud in the parliament speech that Pakistan will have to bring the culprits of 26/11 to book. As Swaminathan Aiyer put is across- US’s strategy is very clear. For the short term its Pakistan and in the long term it’s India. Obama also made it clear that it will not interfere in the Kashmir dispute and will leave it to India & Pakistan to sort out the issue something which India has been saying all this while.

Support for UNSC seat- Well, this was in the offing for a long time. Even the permanent members on the UNSC realize that there is a need to reform the United Nation’s Security Council based on today’s world order. India’s economic clout, growing influence on global issues, strong democratic track record & contribution to peace keeping efforts makes it’s a strong & deserving candidate to claim a permanent seat on the security council. China’s growing influence & uncertain behaviour is a cause of concern for the United States & Europe. In order to keep a balance India’s elevation is imperative to keep this region stable. With four out five permanent members already supporting India’s candidature including the United States, India chances look bright. Though China will try to create obstacles but that would be a real test of India’s diplomatic mettle. And the reform of the UNSC itself might take a few more years.

Many people also skeptical that India’s growing closeness to United States will drift it away from its old friend –Russia. This is not true. The cold war era is completely over and the fall of the Soviet Union also dismantled the bipolar world order. India’s relationship with Russia will & should continue to remain strong. India would need the support of both these nations to realize its true potential which is essential for this region. Obama’s endorsement should not be seen just lip service but an articulation of India true position in this century. As Obama put it- that India is not emerging, it has emerged.

HAS INDIA GIVEN AWAY THE ADVANTAGE?

Except for the initials of their first two names ‘SM’, there is nothing common between foreign ministers of India & Pakistan. SM Krishna is a soft spoken man who does not belief in tough & straight on the face talk but more in mild diplomatic tone of communication. His counterpart SM Qureshi on the other hand is far more aggressive and articulate in his communication. No wonder then that even before Krishna’s plane landed in New Delhi back from Islamabad, his counterpart in Pakistan Qureshi had quashed the Indo-Pak talks.

The problem with Indo-Pak talks has always been the hype surrounding these discussions. The media from both sides expect some sensational announcement that would change the future course of these two nations. So even if both sides make some small progress after series of talks, it takes just one issue to trample them..

Post 26/11, the scenario was gloom for a year before the Indian PM; Dr Manmohan Singh took the initiative to talk to Pakistan. The Sharm El Shaik fiasco did put Dr Singh under a lot of pressure but it was his personal agenda to make sure that the talks between the two sides do not derail.

But the biggest hurdle for Indo-Pak talks to make progress is India’s demand for action against the perpetrators of 26/11. Even if the Pakistan government is willing to take action against these suspects, it simply cannot. The plethora of dossiers submitted by India clearly points the finger at Hafiz Saeed. The Pakistan government did take some action by filing a case.But the courts could not convict him citing lack of evidence. But the Headley revelation has brought a new twist in the tale. The role of ISI (Which was in doubt all this while) in the attack has not only put Pakistan on the back foot but also jeopardized the peace talks.

The reason why Saeed is still a free man today is because the 26/11 attack was done with the full backing of the ISI. So even if the government tries to take action against Saeed, ISI won’t let that happen. The Pakistan army cannot afford to let ISI be pulled in this case as that would globally tarnish Pakistan’s image.

That is the key reason for the failure of the foreign ministers’ meeting. Given the recent turmoil in Kashmir, Pakistan got the license again to raise the Kashmir issue to distract the focus of the talks. So what does India do from here onwards?

There are three options India has from here.

First- Stop talks with Pakistan till it delivers on the 26/11 case. But then that leads to a deadlock again and wipes out all the progress made in the last few months.

Second- Push the US to pressurize Pakistan to take some action. But that’s again not going to fetch any positive result as US’s priority is Afghanistan for which it needs Pakistan. No wonder then that a fresh package of $500 million has been unveiled by Hillary Clinton for Pakistan. And the US has refused to publicly comment on ISI’s role in the 26/11 case.The reason- US is not in favour of declaring Pakistan a terrorist sponsored state.

Lastly- Opens talks on all issues including Kashmir with the hope that Pakistan would respond by taking some action in the 26/11 case.

The last option seems the only way ahead for India at the moment. But then by doing so India will again lose the diplomatic edge by taking more steps whereas Pakistan without taking any action against the 26/11 conspirators would be in a dominant position to drive the talks forward. It is clear from the statements made by the foreign minister that Pakistan is not desperate for talks with India.

Going to the United Nations with all the evidence collected against Pakistan will not be of much help as United States cannot allow any sanctions against Pakistan as that would deter its Afghanistan plans.

The only way ahead for India is to keep talking to Pakistan even if that means slow progress on the 26/11 front. Freezing the dialogue process will become a big problem at this stage. India should not hesitate to discuss all core issues as India would be in a much better position to handle the Kashmir issue rather then Pakistan which would find it difficult to not respond to the 26/11 case. The bottom line is that ups and downs have been part & parcel of Indo-Pak talks and the talks should continue.

KASAB & SHAHZAD: THE COMMON LINK

Last week Ajmal Amir Kasab was finally handed over the capital punishment as expected. In the same week Faisal Shahzad, who attempted to detonate a bomb in Times Square was arrested from JFK airport in New York. US officials’ claim that Shahzad has confessed that he indeed did try to blow up a bomb kept inside a car at Time Square to kill and terrorize people.

On the face of it Kasab & Shahzad have nothing in common except the fact that they both hail from Pakistan and both were trained by the same terror establishment which is based in Pakistan. Otherwise both of them have pretty distinct backgrounds. Kasab was born in a poor

family from a remote village in Punjab, largely illiterate and unemployed, who briefly worked as a labourer in Lahore before he joined the training camp of LeT. While on the other hand Shahzad had a privileged upbringing in a decent family. His father was in the armed forces and he mainly stayed in the big cities of Pakistan and received good education. He moved to the US in 1999 where he got his degree in computer engineering and also worked in various companies.

For many it has come as a shock that given Shahzad’s background and education he still chose the fundamentalist approach. But there is one ‘root’ cause that actually underlines a similarity between Kasab & Shahzad. Both the men were going through financial problems at different levels. Kasab in his confession stated on camera that his trainers had promised 1, 50,000 rupees for his family if he did his job well. Incidentally, according to the initial reports that are emerging with regards to Shahzad suggest that even he was a victim of the financial crisis that had engulfed United States last year.

The Islamic fundamentalist groups have exploited this situation faced by young Muslims across income levels to the fullest. Though, this is not the only factor that must have influenced the minds of these two individuals but was definitely a vital factor. These examples clearly demonstrate that the Islamic fundamentalist groups have a streamlined propaganda and indoctrination process in place. The pattern and the approach vary depending on the background of the individual. For example Kasab in his confession stated that he first got introduced to LeT through a pamphlet which was been distributed in his village by LeT members. The pamphlet asked young village boys to join their training camps. The case of Shahzad is not an isolated one involving a young, educated Muslim been swayed by an Islamic terror group. The involvement of Ahmad brothers in the failed terrorist attack that was attempted at the Glasgow airport & London in 2007 also illustrates the sophisticated approach that has been adopted by these groups to indoctrinate these educated men.

Till now poverty has been considered the root cause for violence-whether its naxal based terrorism or even religious based terrorism to an extent, but now this new form of ‘urban financial crisis’ that has emerged in the recent years is another dangerous phenomenon. Hopefully this won’t become another catalyst that would give birth to urban based right wing terrorism.

TIME FOR INDIA TO TALK TOUGH

On 18th July 2005 when George W Bush and Dr Manmohan Singh jointly announced the historic nuclear agreement in Washington, many thought that this would be the beginning of a relationship that would dominate the world in the 21st century. Some even compared it to the US-Israel relationship that has been rock steady for the last 6 decades. But Dr Singh would have never imagined at that time that the nuclear deal which was the symbol of this new love affair between the two nations for which he also put his chair and the government on the line in 2008 (The Left pull support from the UPA) would start loosing its sheen so early.


Bush and Dr Singh were the architects of this new strategic relationship which was created on mutual benefit & trust. But unfortunately for India the meaning of the word ‘mutual benefit’ which was defined by these two leaders in 2005 changed in January 2009 when Barack Obama took over as the president of the United States of America.

In the last one year there have been three key issues that clearly indicate Washington’s priority and preference. The thorniest issue has been the 26/11 investigation. From the time of 26/11, India’s reliance on the US to pressurize Pakistan to act against the Pakistan based terror camps has been a complete failure. Yes, the US has publicly always made statements that Pakistan must act and speed up the process. But the reality still remains that Hafiz Saeed, the alleged mastermind of 26/11 is still roaming around scot free. Similarly when David Headley admitted his role in the 26/11 attack, the US officials immediately made it clear to India that Headley will not be extradited to India. The only assurance given was that Indian investigators would be given access to him for questioning. How soon and for what period is still not known. The third issue has been the India-Iran relationship. The US has been continuously pressurizing India not to do any business with Iran. India has been in talks with Iran over the multi billion dollar gas pipeline which is pivotal for India’s growing energy needs.

Lets take an hypothetical example with regards to 26/11 investigations. Had the US been in India’s position and say Iraq or even Iran had been directly responsible for 9/11 then would it had ever allowed India to do business with either Iran or Iraq? It launched an all out war against Afghanistan in 2002. Not only did it attack Afghanistan but took along with it a host of sycophants like the UK, Australia etc, who were not the victims of 9/11. But on the other hand now the US is not only providing financial aid to Pakistan but also considers it a big partner in its fight against the Taliban. And for India, Pakistan’s soil was used to attack Mumbai on 26/11.

Similarly to the issue of Iran with which the US has had a long standing problem and till date the US has been alleging that Iran has a hidden nuclear weapons program in place which is dangerous for the world. Washington has been pressing for more sanctions and pressurizing New Delhi not to do any business with them. Iran is a democratic state and even if there are grey areas in their nuclear plan even then it should be handled through a dialogue in the same manner as the US has been advocating India on the Pakistan issue. Washington has all this while pushing India to have a dialogue with Islamabad even though they have failed to deliver on the 26/11 front. Washington has no right to tell New Delhi not to work with Iran. Washington has never had any problem with Israel, which has all along developed weapons and used them against Palestine.

And the last but the most major issue relates to Headley. US attacked Afghanistan citing that Osama Bin Laden is hiding there. Ironically, one of the main culprits (Headley) who has accepted his role in 26/11 is sitting in the US but the victim India cannot extradite him. But hypothetically, had India given shelter or even arrested Osama then was there ever a chance that the US would have agreed to him not been extradited to the US?

All these three issues highlight the double standards that have been followed by the US administration. It also reflects that Obama’s priority is not India but Afghanistan for which it needs Pakistan. That’s the precise reason why it is not handing over Headley as that would lead to a complete exposure of Pakistan’s role.

Dr Singh who is currently in the US for the nuclear summit and also met Obama should step up the gas. It is essential to convey the message to their US counterparts that 26/11 investigation is as important for India as the 9/11 attack was for the US. And its time that India stands firm even on the Iran issue. Because the nuclear deal is now history & there isn’t any more big presents coming from the US. If India stifles under US pressure then its journey to become the superpower of this century would be defeated.

CRICKET: THE TOOL FOR DIPLOMATIC WAR

The IPL auction which saw absolutely no bidding for Pakistani players has left the whole of Pakistan fuming & has lead to a diplomatic war between the two sides….Lalit Modi in his defense kept stating that ‘performance’ & ‘availability’ were the criteria based on which the franchises selected the players…

Mr Modi did not do his homework as he forgot that Pakistan are the T20 champions and out of the eleven Pakistani players put for auction most of the players were part of the winning team. And as far as availability is concerned…Pakistan has no tour lined up for March & April when the IPL is scheduled to take place…So this theory stands no ground. It could probably be a sort of a

pay-back time for the government to send a message to Modi to not get into a direct confrontation with the government as he did last year. The sad fact of the matter is that Modi is becoming bigger than the event…And this is a peril for IPL

The franchise haven’t come out in the open with a vivid explanation for the non-inclusion of Pakistani players in their teams but some of them have referred the unanimous decision to ‘security issues’ which they won’t be able to provide nor is the government ready to guarantee for any players. But home minister P.Chidambaram’s comment that the non-selection of Pakistani players was a ‘disservice’ to cricket has punched a big hole in the explanation given by the franchises.

The IPL fiasco has united the political fraternity, cricketers & the people of Pakistan. This move has given the government of Pakistan the much needed ammunition to attack the Indian government. The saddest aspect of the whole event is that the people across the border have perceived as political decision with the backing of the Indian people. Though the Indian media & the Indian cricket fraternity has condemned the whole event...

Lalit Modi handled this situation in a very abysmal manner. Ideally, the IPL along with all the franchises should have issued a statement to the Pakistan cricket board before the auction itself that they won’t be able to include the players in the auction as the franchises won’t be able to provide security for the players. Altleast by doing this the dignity of the players would have remained intact. No doubt that some clamor would have been raised by the Pakistan cricket board or even the government but atleast the players would not have felt humiliated.

Another loser is IPL the tournament itself. The fact that IPL projects itself is a fusion of cultures where there are no political boundaries, racial divide or religious conflicts have been contradicted by this very event. History is a testimony that cricket has played a pivotal role in bringing both the nations together. Whether it was the standing ovation for the Pakistan team after it beat India in Chennai in 1999 or the stupendous welcome for the Indian team when it visited Pakistan in 2004. IPL had the golden chance to recreate that magic but alas! They have dropped it… Even art & culture has been instrumental in bridging the divide. Bollywood movies and actors are a rage in Pakistan while Pakistani singers are admired by Indians…Art, culture and especially cricket have bolstered the warmth & affection between the citizens of both countries.

But if we start using them as tools for fighting a diplomatic war then the situation will deteriorate even more. And this is exactly what the terror groups in Pakistan & the rightist groups in India want. They want to create a situation where even people to people link breaks and creates more acrimony between the two sides.

The only silver lining is the stand taken by the Indian government which at least by condemning the handling of the whole issue has send the message that it is fighting a war against terrorists operating out of Pakistan not the people or cricketers of Pakistan…It’s high time that the likes of Modi look beyond commercial interest as that will enhance the reputation of Indian cricket & the sport itself….

IPL 3 might go on raking big bucks and once the TRP’s kick in the whole episode would be forgotten but no global cricket tournament is complete with out the representation of all the cricketing giants…The IPL sheen would be missing this time around thanks to the absence of Pakistani players…

10 CHALLENGES INDIA FACES IN 2010

The year 2009 was a satisfying year for India. Been able grow at an impressive rate of 7% at the time when the whole world was reeling under recession and also emerging as a major global player on all key global issues were some of the biggest achievments . But the year 2010 will bring with it even bigger challenges which will truly test the might of the nation. Here are the 10 major challenges for the year 2010.

1) Price rise- Even though India was able to fight global recession to a great extent, the rise of basic food items has hit the common man badly. Currently the food inflation is at a decade high of 20 percent.The government will have to ensure that prices are back to normal levels at the earliest otherwise the economic growth will look meaningless for the middle class & poor people of this nation.

2) Terror threat- Post 26/11 no major terror attack has struck India but the Headley-Rana case is a chilling reminder of the vulnerable security situation. From the time Chidambaram has taken over as union home minister, the inteligence sharing has improved drastically. But there are still many grey areas. The threat of another 26/11 type attack continues to loom.

3) Commonwealth Games- This has become a matter of pride for the nation. This is a golden opportunity for India to showcase itself to the world as a potential superpower. China was able to do it by hosting the 2008 Olympic Games. But with the IOC skeptical about the preparation made so far, the onus is on the administration to act quickly at any cost. If Delhi is able to pull this off succesfully then the stereotype of India been just a poor nation and full of call centres might be finally broken. This is a huge challenge as the nation’s reputation is at stake.

4) The Naxal threat- The naxals proved in 2009 that they are the biggest security threat to this country. With the naxal influence growing from the state to state the government will have to do much more to restrict this threat. Apart from dialogue with the Naxals, enhancement of police weapons & special task force are significant immediate steps that the government will have to take.

5) Implementation of flagship programs- The iconic projects and flagship programmes of the UPA government are suffering from implementation blues. The delivery monitoring unit in the Prime Minister’s Office that assessed the performance of 18 schemes has found that only the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) is doing well. The Rajiv Gandhi Yojna (Housing scheme) & Right to education are some key projects that are yet to take off. Making sure they take off in the right direction would be essential this year.

6) Creation of smaller states- The Telangana issue has triggered of a debate which would shape the future of India. Having smaller states could prove to be boon as it would lead to more development, lesser corruption and more decentralization. But it is imperative that the government comes out with clear set of policies for carving out smaller states. Creating states merely on ethnic or linguistic lines doesn’t make sense at this point of time. Economics should be the driving point. Setting up a committee to set the guidelines should be done at the earliest.

7) Autonomy for Jammu & Kashmir- This is a thorny issue that is bound to create huge ripples but probably is the right way ahead. Critics argue that this will create a safe haven for terrorists which will have a direct impact on Indian security. By granting autonomy to J&K, the government just might tilt the valley’s support in its favour. With uncertainty attached to Pakistan’s democratic future, this is the practical way ahead.

8) Foreign policy decisions- India has been criticized in the last few years for going the US way on international political issues. The vote against Iran was seen in this light. On issues like climate change India has been able to guard its interest. But will it stifle under US pressure on large international political issues is the big question.

9) How to deal with neighbours- This question has haunted India for decades now. To talk or not to talk to Pakistan is a big question. So far India has resisted from taking a very rigid stand. But it still needs to find ways to make Pakistan act against the perpetrators of 26/11. Without that there would be no meaning to any dialogues with them. Similarly the China issue is even dicier. On issues like climate change both countries have lobbied together but the Arunachal Pradesh issue is the tricky one where trusting China could be a mistake.

10) Police Reforms- P.Chidambaram has been raising this point for sometime now. The police needs immediate reforms. The recent cases of Ruchika molestation and Mumbai cops dancing in an underworld party exposed the naked truth. Also the cops need better training & weapons to fight terror attacks.

INTERESTING HISTORY OR BORING REALITY?

The other day I asked a bunch of college students – What is your view about Jinnah? Is it right on our part to blame him entirely for the partition?? The answers I got were - ‘That we really don’t know’…how does it matter now…But the most interesting answer out of all of them was ‘History is a boring subject and we all hated it in school’.

History is a funny subject. It not only gives an understanding about geographies but also creates social & political characters which ironically shape the future our polity. But the problem is that in more than one case, it is ultimately ‘one act’ which ‘makes’ or ‘breaks’ the image of historical characters. Little know Mangal Pandey became a hero after 1857 mutiny, Bhagat Singh became an icon of the freedom struggle after he was hanged by the British. ‘I Have a Dream’, the famous speech of Martin Luther King, Jnr, made his legacy immortal. Historians have always preferred to paint history in black & white. There are glorified heroes & evil ‘villains’ with no place for humans with grey shades. So if Mahatma Gandhi is the hero of independent India’s history, the one who steered us to freedom, history had to find a villain for this story as well!!! And that is Mohd Ali Jinnah, the man who is considered the mastermind for the partition.

History can never be accurate because selective facts are used by the author to supplement his/her interpretation of history. So if the history we studied in school considered ‘Jinnah’ the main culprit for the partition, our peers in Pakistan have been fed with history stating that Nehru- Gandhi were not concerned about Muslims and they would have suffered at the hands of the majority Hindus.

So let’s not get fooled by history which changes color from region to region. There is no harm in seeking the truth, but what is important is to realize that all protagonists of history were human beings. They also possessed grey shades & made mistakes at various stages. The partition was also a result of mistakes committed by leaders on both sides. Jinnah, Nehru, Patel were all humans and possessed grey shades. Their greatness cannot be undermined based on one incident. The fact still remains that all of them fought for the same cause and that was freedom. Had they all not stood together probably we (including Pakistan) would still be saying ‘hail the queen’. So the years of turmoil they all went through, including ‘Jinnah’ prior to independence cannot be discounted by India. Similarly Pakistan cannot discount Nehru’s role, who was instrumental in India’s freedom struggle

History is the best text to draw lessons & ensure not to commit mistakes in the future again. But alas, politicians still like digging the past to reap electoral benefits for power. They don’t understand nor do they want to understand history. It all depends as to which segment of the society are they catering to- Ambedkar for Dalits, Sarvarkar for RSS, Shivaji for Shiv Sena, etc.

So when Jaswant Singh not only tried to undo the ‘history’ of the BJP but the history of India, there was bound to be fireworks. Politicians normally enjoy most privileges but one of the few things that they are not entitled to do is to ‘retrace’ history because the ramifications are severe unless one is a LK Advani. It took Jaswant Singh’s one book to turn his political career upside down and create a havoc in the BJP. Seeking the truth is strictly prohibited for politicians because that can actually disturb the balance of our politics. Their history is determined by vote bank politics. But on the brighter side, as long as intellects including politicians like Jaswant Singh do remarkable scholarly work by exploring the possible realities hidden by many historians, the subject of history could become interesting for at least a few if not all in schools & colleges.

THE GREAT GAMBLER

Manmohan Singh loves to flirt with gambling. Look at his track record.

Gamble 1: In 1991 he was severly criticized for adopting the open market economic model. Many from his own party were against his decision to move from a socio economic model to a much more rightist capitalist driven economic model. It was then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s staunch backing for Dr Singh’s bold vision that helped him push those reforms. And rest is history as they say. Today India is the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world. And thanks to the booming economy, India’s reputation as a global power has bolstered.

Gamble 2: In 2005 he played his next big gamble by striking the nuclear deal with the US. This was strongly opposed by the Left & the BJP. Sonia Gandhi’s support this time & some smart political manovering helped the government survive the trust vote in July 2007 & also sealed the deal. Was the deal good? India has joined the elite nuclear club but the real answer will be known only after a decade or so if India is able to generate enough ‘power’ to meet the demand of a growing nation & still retain its foreign policy independence.

Gamble 3: This time he has played the biggest gamble of all. Peace with Pakistan is something which no leader has achived in the past 62 years.Post 26/11; the anti-Pakistan rhetoric is on its peak. But the PM’s meeting with Yosuf Raza Gilani (Pakistan PM) & his controvertial joint statement has put Dr Singh again in the spot.



Critics think that he has given the advantage to Pakistan by ‘delinking terror with the peace dialogue & including Balochistan’ in the statement.

The positives of this gamble:

1) Engaging Pakistan: Dr Singh knows that by taking a monolithic stand of not talking to Pakistan will not take them any where. Pakistan will stick to its stand of asking for more evidence against the likes of LeT & no action will be taken.By appreciating the concerns of Pakistan that encompasses talks on Kashmir & discussing India’s involvement in Balochistan, Dr Singh has made the right move. Engaging Pakistan is the only way to make some concrete progress

2) Two to Tango: It is foolish & impractical to assume that Pakistan will adhere to all conditions of India. For the dialogue to move forward both sides will have to be aprreciate each others concerns and above all act upon them. If India wants terrorists of 26/11 to be brought to justice then India will have to respond to Pakistan’s query of RAW’s involvement in Balochistan. Post the Sharm-el-Shaik meet between the two PMs the immediate results are interesting. For the 1st time since the attack Pakistan has accepted that Ajmal Kasab is indeed a Pakistani national and also arrested 26/11 mastermind Zakhiur Rehman Lakhvi.

3) Less reliance on USA: It is imperative for India to be in a position to push Pakistan to take some tough action. By taking a rigid stand India will have to rely completely on international pressure & especially on USA to pressurize Pakistan.USA’s main concern is Afghanistan not India-Pakistan.

Negatives of the Gamble

1) Gilani is no Musharraf: Trusting Gilani’s quest for peace is not the problem but his ability to deliver is the worrying factor. Army is the biggest player in the state of Pakistan. So even if Gilani wants genuine progress he would need the support of General Kiyani led Pakistan army. It was much more productive to do business with the enigmatic Musharraf who controlled both the army & the government .But for political parties to act themselves is virtually impossible in Pakistan. So will the army support Gilani to take this dialogue forward with an open mind is a big worry

2) Unstable Pakistan: The biggest risk for Dr Singh is the uncertainity attached with Pakistan. History is a testimony that the democractic structure of Pakistan has always remained vulnerable. 3 dictators have ruled the country. So even if some concessions are made by India they back fire if some rightist dictator comes to power in Pakistan.

3) Dismantling terror infrastructrue: Will Pakistan & the ISI eliminate fundamentalist group which were created by the ISI. Unfortunately the groups’ that were nurtured & used by the army during the proxy war against India have become monsters. Any move to dismantle them can cause major casualty to Pakistan itself. So does the state & army have the willingness to cut the giant tree which has deep roots?

Like his previous gambles, Dr Singh is again looking at the long term picture & wants to do business with Gilani. His intentions are very result oriented but the road to achieve that goal is going to be a huge task. Playing with fire is a great spectale but if not handled properly it can casue major injuries. So will the most apolitical PM of India crack the most complex political matrix??? Even the most seasoned gamblers will find it difficult to predict this one.