The countdown for the cricket world cup has started which is just three weeks away. After a cracker one-day series between India & South Africa, the tournament is been tipped to be a huge success. This world cup is important for various reasons.
It will decide the future of one-day cricket. This is the first major one-day tournament after the arrival of T20 cricket which has taken the cricket world by storm. So will the spectator turn out for the forty day tournament be as high as it used to be during the pre- T20 cricket time? Will the television viewership be as high as it used to be during the previous editions are some of the big questions. The ICC will go all out to make sure that the pitches for the event are batsmen friendly as that will make the matches high scoring.
Now what hasn’t changed is the buzz around who are the favourites to win this World Cup. Many Indian cricket experts, media houses & fans have already started believing that India is the strongest team to win this world cup. The reasons- that India has the best side, we are playing on our home ground etc. My take is that India is one of the favourites but definitely not the favourite to win this edition.
The reason is that though India has probably the best batting side but their bowling is a big concern. The two world cups in which India performed exceptionally well were 1983 & 2003. In both these edition one key reason for India’s superior performance was India’s bowling. In 1983 – Roger Binny and Madan Lal were the top two wicket takers of the tournament. Between the two they took 35 wickets in 8 matches. Kapil Dev & Mohinder Amarnath had an economy rate of less than 3 which made it difficult for the opposition to score runs. Kapil Dev also took 12 wickets in the tournament.
Similarly in the 2003 – Zaheer, Srinath & Nehra took 49 wickets together in 11 matches. Harbhajan’s economy rate was less than 4. Along with India’s batting the bowlers also played an equal important role. Now the argument could be that In India the conditions are different but even then any team would need atleast 3 bowlers who perform well. It is not necessarily to be the highest wicket takers but atleast bowl tight.
This time around India’s bowling is one of the weakest ever. Nehra is still to in to rhythm, harbhajan has been inconsistent. Praveen Kumar is struggling for fitness and even though Munaf bowled well in South Africa, in India he has never been very effective. Zaheer is the only reliable force. But given that India will play four bowlers in all matches atleast 3 will have to be in prime form. Luckily India’s part time bowlers- Yuvraj, Yousuf & raina have been bowling well. Sehwag & tendulkar are also very effective bowlers. So getting useful ten overs out of these three to four bowlers will not be a major concern.
No doubt that India has a very potent batting side with the top seven batsmen capable of winning the match for the team on any given day. But out of the seven batsmen atleast four will have to perform consistently & be in great form. Sehwag & Tendulkar will be a lethal opening combination. But Sehwag will play his natural game and like always his consistency will be the key. But his & Tendulkar’s form will be the most critical factor if India is to go through till the finals. In the middle order with Yuvraj & Dhoni struggling to for form, Gambhir & Kohli have a very pivotal role to play. Gambhir at number 3 and Kohli at number 4 will have to play the anchor sheet role. One of them will have to raise their hand in every match and stay at the crease till the end. Yuvraj has been out of form for a very long time but given his talent & calibre Dhoni has no choice but to back him. The day he finds his rhythm he can demolish the opposition. Dhoni like always will play according to the situation. His temperament is his key and will provide the reprieve to the batting.
But the ‘X factor will be Yousuf Pathan.I think it is imperative that Dhoni plays Yousuf Pathan in all the matches even if that means dropping Raina. Yousuf is a special player and he cannot be expected to play a miracle innings each & every time India is in trouble. He may click say 3 times out 10 matches. But the day he gets going he can win India the match single handedly. Sehwag & Yousuf are two batsmen who can alter the course of a match in a matter of few overs. They have to be backed no matter how inconsistent they are. If India has to win this world cup both of them will have to produce special innings in some crucial matches.
Lastly, since the 2002 Natwest trophy in England, India has not won a single major one day tournament. They have always cracked under pressure in major tournaments. So the temperament will be another key factor.
As if now without naming any favourites the four teams that should make it to semis are – India, South Africa, England & Sri Lanka. Anyone of them can win this world cup. But the surprise package of the world cup could be Pakistan. They have it in them to surprise everyone.
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
INDIA’S GREAT KASHMIR BLUNDER
The summer of 2010 will not forgotten in Kashmir for decades to come. Even as the tension on the streets of Kashmir was not enough which has already witnessed killings of more than forty people that the state was hit by another tragedy- the flash floods which has consumed 100 lives and nearly 200 people are still missing as I write this article.
Militant insurgency in Kashmir started to surge way back in 1989 but never in the last twenty years had the anger on in the valley (Kashmir) reached a level where women & small children had taken to the streets to display their anger, frustration & agony by pelting stones at the paramilitary forces. And what has come as an even bigger surprise is that only nineteen months back during the state assembly election the voters’ turnout touched sixty percent which was seen by many as the end of Kashmiri nationalism and the beginning of new era in Kashmiri politics. So what went wrong in the last nineteen months that has lead to this catastrophe?
For the past 62 years we have always blamed elements from the across the border & the separatists for all the violence that has occurred in the state. But if you talk to any Kashmiri at this time, he/she will tell you just one thing at this point of time- the Indian state & the army are the biggest threats for Kashmiri. Talk to the youth in Kashmir, he will tell you that it’s the armyman’s gaze right from his childhood that has troubled him and still continues to. The military force claim that all the firing has been done in self defense against the heavy stone pelting that has been directed towards them but the reality remains that more than half the youth dead in the firing have been shot above their waist or on their head. Many bystanders including women taking shelter in their homes have been shot dead.So it is quite natural that the Kashmiris which include mothers, sisters & small brothers are venting their anger against the police for the killings of their brothers & fathers
The significant victory which the Indian state witnessed after the 2008 state elections has perished. Omar Abdullah who became the youngest chief minister of the state and was riding a popularity wave has been brought down to the ground. His unpopularity has reached such a high that even his party cadres are drifting away from the party. Abdullah’s critics say that he has lost connect with the people & failed to uphold the trust of the Kashmiris. This is the same Abdullah who during his most famous speech in the parliament in July 2008 during the nuclear deal debate had said that he would do anything to protect his land & aspirations of his people. Today his people are frustrated, angry & feel betrayed.
But the bigger disappointment has been the reaction from New Delhi which completely failed to read the mood on the ground. Even the silence of the Prime Minister on this issue has compounded the problem and has alienated the normal Kashmiri.
When sixty percent of the state’s population came out and voted in the state elections they placed their trust not only in the state government but also New Delhi. This was an opportunity to make them feel that they are as much of an Indian as any other Bihari, Tamilian or Marathi. Demilitarization of the state could have been one of the first key steps taken to bolster that trust but alas, the opportunity has been blown away.
It is true that elements in Pakistan & the separatists which had started losing influence over the people have exploited this opportunity. But the bigger true is that the people out on the streets are the same people who casted their ballots nineteen months back.So So the blame entirely lies with New Delhi & the Omar Abdullah lead government for creating a trust deficit which has lead to this situation. New Delhi might be able to bring down the violence in the days to come with extra security but has lost the chance of winning the Kashmiri hearts for decades to come. And the calls for ‘azaadi’ (independence) are only going to get louder on the Kashmiri streets.
Friday, February 12, 2010
THE LOST TRACK: SPORTS IN INDIA
Sports in India have been one of the most neglected areas in the last 62 years. Though the country has made rapid economic progress which has put India on the global platform but if there is one significant area where India is lagging behind compared to the big powers of the world then sports is one major area.
Two major sports controversies made headlines in the last few days for all the wrong reasons. Indian hockey players went on strike due to non payment of compensation and Abhinav Bindra not been selected to represent India in the upcoming ‘Commonwealth Games’.
The hockey players issue reflects the sad state of affairs of our national sport. On the one hand cash rich BCCI has been growing richer thanks to the invention of 20-20 format and on the other Hockey federation of India does not have money to even pay its national players. Let’s not forget that hockey has won India much more laurels than any other sport. Indian hockey has won the Olympic gold medal 8 times, silver medal once and the bronze twice. The team has been unbeaten at the Olympics from 1928 to 1956 winning the gold medal six times in a row. India has won the hockey world cup once and is one of the four teams to have won the world cup.
Abhinav Bindra, the only Indian to have won the gold medal in the history of Olympics not been selected for the commonwealth games has left everyone startled. The reason given by NRAI (National Rifles association of India) is that Bindra did not turn up for the trials. Bindra’s clarification is that he did turn up but the association & the ministry postponed the date. Bindra all this while was training in Europe for the event. But the most absurd point in all this is that the association is not ready to consider Bindra’s international performances in the last few months. By any logic the international events are much more competitive & the participation standards are much higher.
These two events are just the tip of the iceberg. Indian sports need a serious makeover not only in terms of nurturing talent but also a major restructuring of the whole system is the need of the hour. The sports ministry has been the biggest failure to start with. Whether it was the hockey fiasco or the recent Bindra controversy, the ministry has failed to diffuse the situation. Only a few months back India’s athletic legend, PT Usha was reduced to tears by the kind of beheviour that was metted out to her by the ministry when it came to arrangements for her stay in Madhya Pradesh. Not far behind is the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) which has constantly failed to infuse any sort of encouragement among Olympic athletes. The IOA which is also responsible for organizing the Delhi commonwealth games is already receiving flak from the international Olympic committee for the sloppy preparation progress made so far.
Actually in this scenario the government should take a leaf out of the BCCI model. BCCI is the only sporting body which is not government controlled and is autonomous. Not surprisingly it is also the most successful in terms of financial independence and managing the sport. The Sports ministry should dissolve all the government appointed sport associations. In most of these associations’ members and their office bearers end up holding the post for decades with out any changes. E.g. Suresh Kalmadi has been the president of the IOA for last 14 years. He is in his 4th term which ends in 2012. In all probability he is expected to get another term in 2012. The administrators have to be made accountable and for that the sports ministry should redraft the constitution. A limit should be set as far as the number of terms a person can hold in the general body. This will ensure that the office bearers also change with time. All the sport bodies should be made autonomous with the sports ministry giving them infrastructure assistance & financial backing. Initially there might be issues in raising funds but with time and better administration it shouldn’t be highly difficult for various sports to draw sponsors given the rising interest of people in sports other then cricket. All bodies would be overviewed by the sports ministry minus interference in the administration. The Sports ministry should have ‘special powers’ to intervene in extraordinary circumstances.
Sport is an essential part of any society, especially for a nation that’s on its way to become a superpower. All round development is incomplete without success in multiple sport disciplines. The government should give this sector a lot of significance as India’s glory would be incomplete without success in the world of sports’. One billion plus population and only one individual Olympic medal is a complete injustice to the potential this nation possesses!!!
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
COMMONWEALTH GAMES: SPORTS GLORY OR GLORIFIED SHAME?
In sligthly less than a year’s time India would be hosting the 19th Commonwealth Games in New Delhi. After the 1982 Asian games, this would the biggest sporting event to be organized by India. But with the chief of commonwealth games fedaration (CGF), Mike Fennell, raising serious concerns about the preparations, the build up to the games looks very shaky
Just a year back, China stunned the world by hosting argubly the best ever Olympic Games. It was a grand spectacle that left the world staggered and truly proved China’s determination to emerge as the super power of this century. The Olympic Games is a much bigger event in magnitude compared to the Commonwealth Games. Rio de Janerio, Brazil won the bid to host the 2016 Olympic Games setting another example as to how emerging countries are eyeing these major sports events to showcase their mite to the world. India will be only the 2nd Asian nation to host the Commonwealth Games. In what can be termed as a direct competition between the two emerging superpowers of the world, two of the biggest sporting events are happening within a span of two years. The world will watch closely the Delhi Commonwealth games to draw conclusions about India’s mite and capability to host major events.
But the problem is not about competing with China only. Olympic Games & Commonwealth Games are just not sporting events, but an opportunity for nations to showcase themselves to the world. Not to mention the amount of revenues that flow in the form of tourism & business.It also gives an opportunity to bolster the infrastructure of the host city which benefits millions of people living in the city.
The current state of infrastructure required for the games are not at all encouraging. 14 out of 19 stadiums are behind schedule, the airport enhancement program is lagging behind and so is the construction of bridges and roads that will connect the sports village to the various venues. It is expected that after the games are over, Delhi will have 47 fly overs & a full fledged metro service connecting almost the whole of Delhi. The biggest beneficiaries of this infratsructure would eventually be the common man.
But with Fennel settinp up a technical committee to monitor the work progress of the Commonwealth Games is nothing less then an insult for government of India. This clearly indicates the kind of confidence & faith the Commonwealth games federation has in the Olympic committee & the Sports ministry. When the Union Sports Minister MS Gill was quizzed by the media on this issue, surprisingly the Minister, who usually has an opinion (sometimes uncalled for) on everything related to Indian sports, zipped his mouth. If the sports minister of India cannot display confidence & assure that the preparation will be completed meticulously in time then, how can the federation have any faith in the organizing committee?
This is the same minister, who lambasted the greatest woman athlete of this country PT Usha, when she broke down due to the ill-treatment by the Sports Authority of India. This is the same minister, who refused to recognize Formula 1 racing as a sport. How does it matter that the viewership for this sport is one of the highest in the world and has been picking up constantly in India. The sports minister has hardly made any right noises from the time he has taken over.
However this is a golden opportunity for MS Gill to go down in history as a successful ‘Sports minister’ of India by ensuring that the Commonwealth Games are not only organized smoothly but in the best possible manner. Not only is the pride of India riding on the Commonwealth Games but also the future of Indian sports which has been one of the most underdeveloped area of this developing yet ambitious nation.
Just a year back, China stunned the world by hosting argubly the best ever Olympic Games. It was a grand spectacle that left the world staggered and truly proved China’s determination to emerge as the super power of this century. The Olympic Games is a much bigger event in magnitude compared to the Commonwealth Games. Rio de Janerio, Brazil won the bid to host the 2016 Olympic Games setting another example as to how emerging countries are eyeing these major sports events to showcase their mite to the world. India will be only the 2nd Asian nation to host the Commonwealth Games. In what can be termed as a direct competition between the two emerging superpowers of the world, two of the biggest sporting events are happening within a span of two years. The world will watch closely the Delhi Commonwealth games to draw conclusions about India’s mite and capability to host major events.
But the problem is not about competing with China only. Olympic Games & Commonwealth Games are just not sporting events, but an opportunity for nations to showcase themselves to the world. Not to mention the amount of revenues that flow in the form of tourism & business.It also gives an opportunity to bolster the infrastructure of the host city which benefits millions of people living in the city.
The current state of infrastructure required for the games are not at all encouraging. 14 out of 19 stadiums are behind schedule, the airport enhancement program is lagging behind and so is the construction of bridges and roads that will connect the sports village to the various venues. It is expected that after the games are over, Delhi will have 47 fly overs & a full fledged metro service connecting almost the whole of Delhi. The biggest beneficiaries of this infratsructure would eventually be the common man.
But with Fennel settinp up a technical committee to monitor the work progress of the Commonwealth Games is nothing less then an insult for government of India. This clearly indicates the kind of confidence & faith the Commonwealth games federation has in the Olympic committee & the Sports ministry. When the Union Sports Minister MS Gill was quizzed by the media on this issue, surprisingly the Minister, who usually has an opinion (sometimes uncalled for) on everything related to Indian sports, zipped his mouth. If the sports minister of India cannot display confidence & assure that the preparation will be completed meticulously in time then, how can the federation have any faith in the organizing committee?
This is the same minister, who lambasted the greatest woman athlete of this country PT Usha, when she broke down due to the ill-treatment by the Sports Authority of India. This is the same minister, who refused to recognize Formula 1 racing as a sport. How does it matter that the viewership for this sport is one of the highest in the world and has been picking up constantly in India. The sports minister has hardly made any right noises from the time he has taken over.
However this is a golden opportunity for MS Gill to go down in history as a successful ‘Sports minister’ of India by ensuring that the Commonwealth Games are not only organized smoothly but in the best possible manner. Not only is the pride of India riding on the Commonwealth Games but also the future of Indian sports which has been one of the most underdeveloped area of this developing yet ambitious nation.
Monday, August 31, 2009
INTERESTING HISTORY OR BORING REALITY?
The other day I asked a bunch of college students – What is your view about Jinnah? Is it right on our part to blame him entirely for the partition?? The answers I got were - ‘That we really don’t know’…how does it matter now…But the most interesting answer out of all of them was ‘History is a boring subject and we all hated it in school’.
History is a funny subject. It not only gives an understanding about geographies but also creates social & political characters which ironically shape the future our polity. But the problem is that in more than one case, it is ultimately ‘one act’ which ‘makes’ or ‘breaks’ the image of historical characters. Little know Mangal Pandey became a hero after 1857 mutiny, Bhagat Singh became an icon of the freedom struggle after he was hanged by the British. ‘I Have a Dream’, the famous speech of Martin Luther King, Jnr, made his legacy immortal. Historians have always preferred to paint history in black & white. There are glorified heroes & evil ‘villains’ with no place for humans with grey shades. So if Mahatma Gandhi is the hero of independent India’s history, the one who steered us to freedom, history had to find a villain for this story as well!!! And that is Mohd Ali Jinnah, the man who is considered the mastermind for the partition.
History can never be accurate because selective facts are used by the author to supplement his/her interpretation of history. So if the history we studied in school considered ‘Jinnah’ the main culprit for the partition, our peers in Pakistan have been fed with history stating that Nehru- Gandhi were not concerned about Muslims and they would have suffered at the hands of the majority Hindus.
So let’s not get fooled by history which changes color from region to region. There is no harm in seeking the truth, but what is important is to realize that all protagonists of history were human beings. They also possessed grey shades & made mistakes at various stages. The partition was also a result of mistakes committed by leaders on both sides. Jinnah, Nehru, Patel were all humans and possessed grey shades. Their greatness cannot be undermined based on one incident. The fact still remains that all of them fought for the same cause and that was freedom. Had they all not stood together probably we (including Pakistan) would still be saying ‘hail the queen’. So the years of turmoil they all went through, including ‘Jinnah’ prior to independence cannot be discounted by India. Similarly Pakistan cannot discount Nehru’s role, who was instrumental in India’s freedom struggle
History is the best text to draw lessons & ensure not to commit mistakes in the future again. But alas, politicians still like digging the past to reap electoral benefits for power. They don’t understand nor do they want to understand history. It all depends as to which segment of the society are they catering to- Ambedkar for Dalits, Sarvarkar for RSS, Shivaji for Shiv Sena, etc.
So when Jaswant Singh not only tried to undo the ‘history’ of the BJP but the history of India, there was bound to be fireworks. Politicians normally enjoy most privileges but one of the few things that they are not entitled to do is to ‘retrace’ history because the ramifications are severe unless one is a LK Advani. It took Jaswant Singh’s one book to turn his political career upside down and create a havoc in the BJP. Seeking the truth is strictly prohibited for politicians because that can actually disturb the balance of our politics. Their history is determined by vote bank politics. But on the brighter side, as long as intellects including politicians like Jaswant Singh do remarkable scholarly work by exploring the possible realities hidden by many historians, the subject of history could become interesting for at least a few if not all in schools & colleges.
History is a funny subject. It not only gives an understanding about geographies but also creates social & political characters which ironically shape the future our polity. But the problem is that in more than one case, it is ultimately ‘one act’ which ‘makes’ or ‘breaks’ the image of historical characters. Little know Mangal Pandey became a hero after 1857 mutiny, Bhagat Singh became an icon of the freedom struggle after he was hanged by the British. ‘I Have a Dream’, the famous speech of Martin Luther King, Jnr, made his legacy immortal. Historians have always preferred to paint history in black & white. There are glorified heroes & evil ‘villains’ with no place for humans with grey shades. So if Mahatma Gandhi is the hero of independent India’s history, the one who steered us to freedom, history had to find a villain for this story as well!!! And that is Mohd Ali Jinnah, the man who is considered the mastermind for the partition.
History can never be accurate because selective facts are used by the author to supplement his/her interpretation of history. So if the history we studied in school considered ‘Jinnah’ the main culprit for the partition, our peers in Pakistan have been fed with history stating that Nehru- Gandhi were not concerned about Muslims and they would have suffered at the hands of the majority Hindus.
So let’s not get fooled by history which changes color from region to region. There is no harm in seeking the truth, but what is important is to realize that all protagonists of history were human beings. They also possessed grey shades & made mistakes at various stages. The partition was also a result of mistakes committed by leaders on both sides. Jinnah, Nehru, Patel were all humans and possessed grey shades. Their greatness cannot be undermined based on one incident. The fact still remains that all of them fought for the same cause and that was freedom. Had they all not stood together probably we (including Pakistan) would still be saying ‘hail the queen’. So the years of turmoil they all went through, including ‘Jinnah’ prior to independence cannot be discounted by India. Similarly Pakistan cannot discount Nehru’s role, who was instrumental in India’s freedom struggle
History is the best text to draw lessons & ensure not to commit mistakes in the future again. But alas, politicians still like digging the past to reap electoral benefits for power. They don’t understand nor do they want to understand history. It all depends as to which segment of the society are they catering to- Ambedkar for Dalits, Sarvarkar for RSS, Shivaji for Shiv Sena, etc.
So when Jaswant Singh not only tried to undo the ‘history’ of the BJP but the history of India, there was bound to be fireworks. Politicians normally enjoy most privileges but one of the few things that they are not entitled to do is to ‘retrace’ history because the ramifications are severe unless one is a LK Advani. It took Jaswant Singh’s one book to turn his political career upside down and create a havoc in the BJP. Seeking the truth is strictly prohibited for politicians because that can actually disturb the balance of our politics. Their history is determined by vote bank politics. But on the brighter side, as long as intellects including politicians like Jaswant Singh do remarkable scholarly work by exploring the possible realities hidden by many historians, the subject of history could become interesting for at least a few if not all in schools & colleges.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
THE GREAT GAMBLER
Manmohan Singh loves to flirt with gambling. Look at his track record.
Gamble 1: In 1991 he was severly criticized for adopting the open market economic model. Many from his own party were against his decision to move from a socio economic model to a much more rightist capitalist driven economic model. It was then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s staunch backing for Dr Singh’s bold vision that helped him push those reforms. And rest is history as they say. Today India is the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world. And thanks to the booming economy, India’s reputation as a global power has bolstered.
Gamble 2: In 2005 he played his next big gamble by striking the nuclear deal with the US. This was strongly opposed by the Left & the BJP. Sonia Gandhi’s support this time & some smart political manovering helped the government survive the trust vote in July 2007 & also sealed the deal. Was the deal good? India has joined the elite nuclear club but the real answer will be known only after a decade or so if India is able to generate enough ‘power’ to meet the demand of a growing nation & still retain its foreign policy independence.
Gamble 3: This time he has played the biggest gamble of all. Peace with Pakistan is something which no leader has achived in the past 62 years.Post 26/11; the anti-Pakistan rhetoric is on its peak. But the PM’s meeting with Yosuf Raza Gilani (Pakistan PM) & his controvertial joint statement has put Dr Singh again in the spot.
Critics think that he has given the advantage to Pakistan by ‘delinking terror with the peace dialogue & including Balochistan’ in the statement.
The positives of this gamble:
1) Engaging Pakistan: Dr Singh knows that by taking a monolithic stand of not talking to Pakistan will not take them any where. Pakistan will stick to its stand of asking for more evidence against the likes of LeT & no action will be taken.By appreciating the concerns of Pakistan that encompasses talks on Kashmir & discussing India’s involvement in Balochistan, Dr Singh has made the right move. Engaging Pakistan is the only way to make some concrete progress
2) Two to Tango: It is foolish & impractical to assume that Pakistan will adhere to all conditions of India. For the dialogue to move forward both sides will have to be aprreciate each others concerns and above all act upon them. If India wants terrorists of 26/11 to be brought to justice then India will have to respond to Pakistan’s query of RAW’s involvement in Balochistan. Post the Sharm-el-Shaik meet between the two PMs the immediate results are interesting. For the 1st time since the attack Pakistan has accepted that Ajmal Kasab is indeed a Pakistani national and also arrested 26/11 mastermind Zakhiur Rehman Lakhvi.
3) Less reliance on USA: It is imperative for India to be in a position to push Pakistan to take some tough action. By taking a rigid stand India will have to rely completely on international pressure & especially on USA to pressurize Pakistan.USA’s main concern is Afghanistan not India-Pakistan.
Negatives of the Gamble
1) Gilani is no Musharraf: Trusting Gilani’s quest for peace is not the problem but his ability to deliver is the worrying factor. Army is the biggest player in the state of Pakistan. So even if Gilani wants genuine progress he would need the support of General Kiyani led Pakistan army. It was much more productive to do business with the enigmatic Musharraf who controlled both the army & the government .But for political parties to act themselves is virtually impossible in Pakistan. So will the army support Gilani to take this dialogue forward with an open mind is a big worry
2) Unstable Pakistan: The biggest risk for Dr Singh is the uncertainity attached with Pakistan. History is a testimony that the democractic structure of Pakistan has always remained vulnerable. 3 dictators have ruled the country. So even if some concessions are made by India they back fire if some rightist dictator comes to power in Pakistan.
3) Dismantling terror infrastructrue: Will Pakistan & the ISI eliminate fundamentalist group which were created by the ISI. Unfortunately the groups’ that were nurtured & used by the army during the proxy war against India have become monsters. Any move to dismantle them can cause major casualty to Pakistan itself. So does the state & army have the willingness to cut the giant tree which has deep roots?
Like his previous gambles, Dr Singh is again looking at the long term picture & wants to do business with Gilani. His intentions are very result oriented but the road to achieve that goal is going to be a huge task. Playing with fire is a great spectale but if not handled properly it can casue major injuries. So will the most apolitical PM of India crack the most complex political matrix??? Even the most seasoned gamblers will find it difficult to predict this one.
Gamble 1: In 1991 he was severly criticized for adopting the open market economic model. Many from his own party were against his decision to move from a socio economic model to a much more rightist capitalist driven economic model. It was then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s staunch backing for Dr Singh’s bold vision that helped him push those reforms. And rest is history as they say. Today India is the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world. And thanks to the booming economy, India’s reputation as a global power has bolstered.
Gamble 2: In 2005 he played his next big gamble by striking the nuclear deal with the US. This was strongly opposed by the Left & the BJP. Sonia Gandhi’s support this time & some smart political manovering helped the government survive the trust vote in July 2007 & also sealed the deal. Was the deal good? India has joined the elite nuclear club but the real answer will be known only after a decade or so if India is able to generate enough ‘power’ to meet the demand of a growing nation & still retain its foreign policy independence.
Gamble 3: This time he has played the biggest gamble of all. Peace with Pakistan is something which no leader has achived in the past 62 years.Post 26/11; the anti-Pakistan rhetoric is on its peak. But the PM’s meeting with Yosuf Raza Gilani (Pakistan PM) & his controvertial joint statement has put Dr Singh again in the spot.
Critics think that he has given the advantage to Pakistan by ‘delinking terror with the peace dialogue & including Balochistan’ in the statement.
The positives of this gamble:
1) Engaging Pakistan: Dr Singh knows that by taking a monolithic stand of not talking to Pakistan will not take them any where. Pakistan will stick to its stand of asking for more evidence against the likes of LeT & no action will be taken.By appreciating the concerns of Pakistan that encompasses talks on Kashmir & discussing India’s involvement in Balochistan, Dr Singh has made the right move. Engaging Pakistan is the only way to make some concrete progress
2) Two to Tango: It is foolish & impractical to assume that Pakistan will adhere to all conditions of India. For the dialogue to move forward both sides will have to be aprreciate each others concerns and above all act upon them. If India wants terrorists of 26/11 to be brought to justice then India will have to respond to Pakistan’s query of RAW’s involvement in Balochistan. Post the Sharm-el-Shaik meet between the two PMs the immediate results are interesting. For the 1st time since the attack Pakistan has accepted that Ajmal Kasab is indeed a Pakistani national and also arrested 26/11 mastermind Zakhiur Rehman Lakhvi.
3) Less reliance on USA: It is imperative for India to be in a position to push Pakistan to take some tough action. By taking a rigid stand India will have to rely completely on international pressure & especially on USA to pressurize Pakistan.USA’s main concern is Afghanistan not India-Pakistan.
Negatives of the Gamble
1) Gilani is no Musharraf: Trusting Gilani’s quest for peace is not the problem but his ability to deliver is the worrying factor. Army is the biggest player in the state of Pakistan. So even if Gilani wants genuine progress he would need the support of General Kiyani led Pakistan army. It was much more productive to do business with the enigmatic Musharraf who controlled both the army & the government .But for political parties to act themselves is virtually impossible in Pakistan. So will the army support Gilani to take this dialogue forward with an open mind is a big worry
2) Unstable Pakistan: The biggest risk for Dr Singh is the uncertainity attached with Pakistan. History is a testimony that the democractic structure of Pakistan has always remained vulnerable. 3 dictators have ruled the country. So even if some concessions are made by India they back fire if some rightist dictator comes to power in Pakistan.
3) Dismantling terror infrastructrue: Will Pakistan & the ISI eliminate fundamentalist group which were created by the ISI. Unfortunately the groups’ that were nurtured & used by the army during the proxy war against India have become monsters. Any move to dismantle them can cause major casualty to Pakistan itself. So does the state & army have the willingness to cut the giant tree which has deep roots?
Like his previous gambles, Dr Singh is again looking at the long term picture & wants to do business with Gilani. His intentions are very result oriented but the road to achieve that goal is going to be a huge task. Playing with fire is a great spectale but if not handled properly it can casue major injuries. So will the most apolitical PM of India crack the most complex political matrix??? Even the most seasoned gamblers will find it difficult to predict this one.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
THE GRAND OLD PRIME MINISTER OF YOUNG INDIA
Elections 2009 are around the corner, setting the buzz as to who would be the next Prime Minister of India. L k Advani is the prime ministerial candidate for the BJP lead NDA, while Dr. Manmohan Singh is all set to be projected as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress lead UPA. It won’t be fair to conclude that these elections will be Advani V/S Manmohan, as Indian elections are not about personalities but diverse issues spearheaded by a plethora of political parties. And in the age of coalition politics, the 3rd name that has emerged as the possible contender for thePrime Minister’s post is Mayawati, the undisputed leader of the Bhahujan Samaj Party and the front runner to be the prime ministerial candidate of the BSP-Left lead third front. In this blog I won’t be elaborating on how much chance does each candidate fancy of occupying the most important political portfolio, but want to throw light at the age profile of the primeministerial candidates.
Dr.Manmohan Singh is going to be 77 in 2009. No doubt he has been an honest leader, argubly the most qualified leader in the world to lead a nation. In 2004, when this humble ex-finance minister of India, went on to become the accidental prime minister, he was 72. This was around the same time when the India rising wave had started making noise across the world. And during his tenure, India made its presence felt across the globe like never before. The biggest nations of the world went on to appreciate that India would surely emerge as the ‘Super power’ of the 21st century along wit China. This would also mark the end of US dominance and European pseudo super power.The main reason attributed for India to attain this new global status was because of its ‘youth’ power.
LK Advani is 5 years older to Dr Singh. He will be completing 82 this year. If Lk Advani does become the Prime Minister this year, he will go on to become the oldest politician to be elected as a leader of a country and the 2nd oldest leader in the world. If one looks at the list of oldest leaders of the world, there are only ‘two’ legitimate elected leaders- 1)Abdoulaye Wade, President of Senegal , who is going to be 83 this year ( he was elected in 2000 at the age of 74 and re-elected at the age of 81 in 2007)and 2)Dr Singh who is 77. Mayawati is probably the only young face among the three candidates aiming for the top post. She could become the Prime Minister at the age of 53. But she can’t be considered a candidate yet because she has no official support yet from any party. So that leaves us with two official candidates running for the top government post of the country.
Ironically, as mentioned earlier, India’s youth power is considered as its USP to become a super power. The 20th century super power USA’s population age is ‘65’. By 2030 1 out of every 5 Americans would be 65 and above. And yet they elected Barak Obama who is 47.Much younger than the current population age projected. He went on to defeat John Mcain who is 72. If we look at the other major global leaders, they all are much younger than their Indian counterparts. E.g. Gordon Brownof Britain is 57, Nicolas Sarkozy of France is 54, Angela Merkel of Germany is 54 etc. In India 54% of the population is below ‘35’ and yet the average age of the top two leaders is ‘80’!!!!
The last time India had a Prime Minister below the age of 60 was in 1989, when VP Singh became the prime minister at the age of 59 for less than a year. Rajiv Gandhi can be considered as the only young Prime Minister this nation got.He won a landslide victory (Post Indira Gandhi assassination) in 1984 and became the prime minister at the age of 40. At a time when majority of the countries are electing young and dynamic leaders to tackle the contemporary global issues, the probable super power of this century might go on to elect the oldest prime minister ever!!!
The average age of an Indian MP is 53. 14% of the MPs are above the age of 65, while only 6.5% are below the age of 35. A country with 54% of the population below the age of 35 has only 34 MPs of the same age group in the parliament. The root of the problem lies here, of not having young politicians contesting elections. Its easier said then done because not a single party encourages young people to contest election unless he/she comes with a political lineage.So forget getting a prime minister below the age of 35, getting more MPs and more people young people contesting election is the most fundamental way to inject some youth in Indian politics. Lack of dynamic leaders is another problem that parties are not able to project young leaders who can match the average age of an Indian MP (53). In BJP there is already major infighting between the second generation leaders. After Advani ,Narendra Modi who is touching 59 is considered the favorite to lead the party in the next elections. But here again without venturing in the personality issue, he too by the time become a prime ministerial candidate would be in his mid 60’s.
Pragmatic thinking and given the dimensions of Indian politics there are only two scenarios in which India can get a young prime minister in the near future. One if Mayawati with help of small minded parties comes to power. She at the age of 53 will be considered a young prime minister. But this whole Old V/s young issue is not merely restricted to the age factor. A‘Young leader ‘is asscociated with newer ideas and a fresh outlook, which I am afraid Mayawati lacks completely. She hasn’t displayed an iota of new age ideologies, but instead new age electoral politics which focuses on social engineering.
The second possible senario,for India to get a young prime minister in the immediate future is Rahul Gandhi . For the up coming elections, a faction of the Congress (sycophants) were demanding that he be named the prime ministerial candidate. But Sonia Gandhi’s faith in Manmohan Singh to lead for one more term along with giving Rahul Gandhi more time to gear up for the major role, delayed this declaration. Without deviating from the main point, the irony remains that the only way India can get a young leader with some amount of faith and credibility in the next few years is through ‘dynastic’ politics. People won’t have a major problem in accepting him as a prime minister since he is educated and comes across more sincere, but the problem is that this reiterates the fact that only power, money, political lineage and years of sycophancy can lead one to rise the ladder. This leaves not much scope for a free, liberal and fresh young thinking politican to rise to the top post in this country without any political lineage or divisive political ideology.
Janagran and Tata have initiated an awarness campaign asking younger people to sign up for voting. It’s a valiant effort and appreciative one also. It’s a good start to involve youth in todays political system. India does not need just one ‘Obama’ type personality to resurrect the political inclination in today’s generation. For that to happen Indian polity requires new faces and fresh ideoligies clubbed with new ideas that they can relate to. It needs leaders who can connect with this set of audience and raise new issues, not the ones we have been hearing for the past 6 decades. And if the steps are not taken soon, the average age of an Indian MP will remain the same for years to come. And we would still be choosing leaders for the top post with an average age of 80.!!!While Janagran would have launched a new campiagn called ‘jawan pradhan mantri chahiye’ abhiyan, there would still be many of us without voter id cards....
Published on - http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/article/election-2009.html
Dr.Manmohan Singh is going to be 77 in 2009. No doubt he has been an honest leader, argubly the most qualified leader in the world to lead a nation. In 2004, when this humble ex-finance minister of India, went on to become the accidental prime minister, he was 72. This was around the same time when the India rising wave had started making noise across the world. And during his tenure, India made its presence felt across the globe like never before. The biggest nations of the world went on to appreciate that India would surely emerge as the ‘Super power’ of the 21st century along wit China. This would also mark the end of US dominance and European pseudo super power.The main reason attributed for India to attain this new global status was because of its ‘youth’ power.
LK Advani is 5 years older to Dr Singh. He will be completing 82 this year. If Lk Advani does become the Prime Minister this year, he will go on to become the oldest politician to be elected as a leader of a country and the 2nd oldest leader in the world. If one looks at the list of oldest leaders of the world, there are only ‘two’ legitimate elected leaders- 1)Abdoulaye Wade, President of Senegal , who is going to be 83 this year ( he was elected in 2000 at the age of 74 and re-elected at the age of 81 in 2007)and 2)Dr Singh who is 77. Mayawati is probably the only young face among the three candidates aiming for the top post. She could become the Prime Minister at the age of 53. But she can’t be considered a candidate yet because she has no official support yet from any party. So that leaves us with two official candidates running for the top government post of the country.
Ironically, as mentioned earlier, India’s youth power is considered as its USP to become a super power. The 20th century super power USA’s population age is ‘65’. By 2030 1 out of every 5 Americans would be 65 and above. And yet they elected Barak Obama who is 47.Much younger than the current population age projected. He went on to defeat John Mcain who is 72. If we look at the other major global leaders, they all are much younger than their Indian counterparts. E.g. Gordon Brownof Britain is 57, Nicolas Sarkozy of France is 54, Angela Merkel of Germany is 54 etc. In India 54% of the population is below ‘35’ and yet the average age of the top two leaders is ‘80’!!!!
The last time India had a Prime Minister below the age of 60 was in 1989, when VP Singh became the prime minister at the age of 59 for less than a year. Rajiv Gandhi can be considered as the only young Prime Minister this nation got.He won a landslide victory (Post Indira Gandhi assassination) in 1984 and became the prime minister at the age of 40. At a time when majority of the countries are electing young and dynamic leaders to tackle the contemporary global issues, the probable super power of this century might go on to elect the oldest prime minister ever!!!
The average age of an Indian MP is 53. 14% of the MPs are above the age of 65, while only 6.5% are below the age of 35. A country with 54% of the population below the age of 35 has only 34 MPs of the same age group in the parliament. The root of the problem lies here, of not having young politicians contesting elections. Its easier said then done because not a single party encourages young people to contest election unless he/she comes with a political lineage.So forget getting a prime minister below the age of 35, getting more MPs and more people young people contesting election is the most fundamental way to inject some youth in Indian politics. Lack of dynamic leaders is another problem that parties are not able to project young leaders who can match the average age of an Indian MP (53). In BJP there is already major infighting between the second generation leaders. After Advani ,Narendra Modi who is touching 59 is considered the favorite to lead the party in the next elections. But here again without venturing in the personality issue, he too by the time become a prime ministerial candidate would be in his mid 60’s.
Pragmatic thinking and given the dimensions of Indian politics there are only two scenarios in which India can get a young prime minister in the near future. One if Mayawati with help of small minded parties comes to power. She at the age of 53 will be considered a young prime minister. But this whole Old V/s young issue is not merely restricted to the age factor. A‘Young leader ‘is asscociated with newer ideas and a fresh outlook, which I am afraid Mayawati lacks completely. She hasn’t displayed an iota of new age ideologies, but instead new age electoral politics which focuses on social engineering.
The second possible senario,for India to get a young prime minister in the immediate future is Rahul Gandhi . For the up coming elections, a faction of the Congress (sycophants) were demanding that he be named the prime ministerial candidate. But Sonia Gandhi’s faith in Manmohan Singh to lead for one more term along with giving Rahul Gandhi more time to gear up for the major role, delayed this declaration. Without deviating from the main point, the irony remains that the only way India can get a young leader with some amount of faith and credibility in the next few years is through ‘dynastic’ politics. People won’t have a major problem in accepting him as a prime minister since he is educated and comes across more sincere, but the problem is that this reiterates the fact that only power, money, political lineage and years of sycophancy can lead one to rise the ladder. This leaves not much scope for a free, liberal and fresh young thinking politican to rise to the top post in this country without any political lineage or divisive political ideology.
Janagran and Tata have initiated an awarness campaign asking younger people to sign up for voting. It’s a valiant effort and appreciative one also. It’s a good start to involve youth in todays political system. India does not need just one ‘Obama’ type personality to resurrect the political inclination in today’s generation. For that to happen Indian polity requires new faces and fresh ideoligies clubbed with new ideas that they can relate to. It needs leaders who can connect with this set of audience and raise new issues, not the ones we have been hearing for the past 6 decades. And if the steps are not taken soon, the average age of an Indian MP will remain the same for years to come. And we would still be choosing leaders for the top post with an average age of 80.!!!While Janagran would have launched a new campiagn called ‘jawan pradhan mantri chahiye’ abhiyan, there would still be many of us without voter id cards....
Published on - http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/article/election-2009.html
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