Gamble 1: In 1991 he was severly criticized for adopting the open market economic model. Many from his own party were against his decision to move from a socio economic model to a much more rightist capitalist driven economic model. It was then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s staunch backing for Dr Singh’s bold vision that helped him push those reforms. And rest is history as they say. Today India is the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world. And thanks to the booming economy, India’s reputation as a global power has bolstered.
Gamble 2: In 2005 he played his next big gamble by striking the nuclear deal with the US. This was strongly opposed by the Left & the BJP. Sonia Gandhi’s support this time & some smart political manovering helped the government survive the trust vote in July 2007 & also sealed the deal. Was the deal good? India has joined the elite nuclear club but the real answer will be known only after a decade or so if India is able to generate enough ‘power’ to meet the demand of a growing nation & still retain its foreign policy independence.
Gamble 3: This time he has played the biggest gamble of all. Peace with Pakistan is something which no leader has achived in the past 62 years.Post 26/11; the anti-Pakistan rhetoric is on its peak. But the PM’s meeting with Yosuf Raza Gilani (Pakistan PM) & his controvertial joint statement has put Dr Singh again in the spot.
Critics think that he has given the advantage to Pakistan by ‘delinking terror with the peace dialogue & including Balochistan’ in the statement.
The positives of this gamble:
1) Engaging Pakistan: Dr Singh knows that by taking a monolithic stand of not talking to Pakistan will not take them any where. Pakistan will stick to its stand of asking for more evidence against the likes of LeT & no action will be taken.By appreciating the concerns of Pakistan that encompasses talks on Kashmir & discussing India’s involvement in Balochistan, Dr Singh has made the right move. Engaging Pakistan is the only way to make some concrete progress
2) Two to Tango: It is foolish & impractical to assume that Pakistan will adhere to all conditions of India. For the dialogue to move forward both sides will have to be aprreciate each others concerns and above all act upon them. If India wants terrorists of 26/11 to be brought to justice then India will have to respond to Pakistan’s query of RAW’s involvement in Balochistan. Post the Sharm-el-Shaik meet between the two PMs the immediate results are interesting. For the 1st time since the attack Pakistan has accepted that Ajmal Kasab is indeed a Pakistani national and also arrested 26/11 mastermind Zakhiur Rehman Lakhvi.
3) Less reliance on USA: It is imperative for India to be in a position to push Pakistan to take some tough action. By taking a rigid stand India will have to rely completely on international pressure & especially on USA to pressurize Pakistan.USA’s main concern is Afghanistan not India-Pakistan.
Negatives of the Gamble
1) Gilani is no Musharraf: Trusting Gilani’s quest for peace is not the problem but his ability to deliver is the worrying factor. Army is the biggest player in the state of Pakistan. So even if Gilani wants genuine progress he would need the support of General Kiyani led Pakistan army. It was much more productive to do business with the enigmatic Musharraf who controlled both the army & the government .But for political parties to act themselves is virtually impossible in Pakistan. So will the army support Gilani to take this dialogue forward with an open mind is a big worry
2) Unstable Pakistan: The biggest risk for Dr Singh is the uncertainity attached with Pakistan. History is a testimony that the democractic structure of Pakistan has always remained vulnerable. 3 dictators have ruled the country. So even if some concessions are made by India they back fire if some rightist dictator comes to power in Pakistan.
3) Dismantling terror infrastructrue: Will Pakistan & the ISI eliminate fundamentalist group which were created by the ISI. Unfortunately the groups’ that were nurtured & used by the army during the proxy war against India have become monsters. Any move to dismantle them can cause major casualty to Pakistan itself. So does the state & army have the willingness to cut the giant tree which has deep roots?
Like his previous gambles, Dr Singh is again looking at the long term picture & wants to do business with Gilani. His intentions are very result oriented but the road to achieve that goal is going to be a huge task. Playing with fire is a great spectale but if not handled properly it can casue major injuries. So will the most apolitical PM of India crack the most complex political matrix??? Even the most seasoned gamblers will find it difficult to predict this one.
