THE EGYPT UPRISING: GAME CHANGER FOR THE WORLD?

The Middle East uprising that began in Tunisia and turned into a conflagration by the time it reached Egypt has caught the world attention like never before.After eighteen days of relentless protests, Hosni Mubarakh was finally ousted after thirty years of rule. So what does this ‘Egypt Uprising’ mean for the world and what will be its implications?

An interesting study by Larry Diamond on Arab world and democracy highlights a few interesting points as to why there are no democracies in the Arab world.
The study observes that the notion that Muslim countries are not successful democracies is not true. Twenty nine Muslim dominated countries have a reasonably descent record of political rights as compared to sixteen Arab countries. These include –Turkey, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Albania & Senegal.

Another interesting point illustrated in the study is that out of the sixteen Arab countries, eleven states are heavily depended on the rents from oil & gas exports. In some of these countries as much as 90% of the earnings come from these exports. Most of these countries are so cash rich that they don’t have to tax their own citizens. And that is also a part of the problem. These states do not develop the organic expectations of accountability that emerges when states make citizens pay tax.
The other argument could be that not all Arab countries have oil. Now in these countries the ‘geo-politics’ comes in to play. The two prominent countries that are not oil based economies are Jordan & Egypt. But the other factor that also binds these countries is that they thrive on U.S financial aid.
Since 1975, U.S. financial assistance to Egypt has totaled more than $28 billion. And this does not include the $50 billion that has flowed to that country in unconditional military aid since the 1978 Camp David Peace Accords.
Similarly since 2001, Jordan on an average has been receiving $ 650 million in the form of economic & military aid from the U.S. This has helped both the countries to spend on public jobs without charging steep taxes.

Not surprisingly, Egypt & Jordan are the only two Arab nations that have a peace treaty with Israel. Not only has this prevented any military attack on Israel from the numerous Arab nations including Iran but allowed US to create military bases on these countries to safe guard Israel from any external threat.
But these methods could work only for the last three decades. The 21st century has a new generation in place which is more determined and ambitious. Money alone would not comfort and satisfy them, they want democratic & political rights like the millions of youngsters around the world.

But as many cynics argue that Arabs are still not ready to handle democracy because there is a deep ethnic divide in many countries. This argument also does not hold true. India & Indonesia are two good examples that prove that no matter how fragmented and deep the ethnic divide maybe, democracy given all its flaws can work.
This new revolution is bound to have an impact on the Geo- political situation in the Middle East, especially on Israel. If after Egypt a few more uprisings lead to the fall of more authoritarian regimes in fellow Arab countries than that would change the complete political landscape. The most crucial factor that will decide the future of this region would be the popularity of ‘Right wing Islamic parties’.

A huge chunk in the Arab world, especially the youth is secular. Though many of them may be anti-US because of the Israel-Palestine issue but are not radical Islamists. For example in Egypt the ‘Muslim brotherhood’ is considered a hard right wing Islamic party. But will it find support from the likes of Wale Ghonim, the google executive who used social media & the internet as a tool to ignite the Egypt revolution for freedom is the big question.

The elections in Egypt will be a litmus test not only for the nation but for the whole Arab world as that would give a sense of what the new generation of Arabs is all about. These are not only interesting times for Arabs but the whole world, as the Egypt uprising may be just the beginning of a wave that may well change the geo-politics of this century.

PRESIDENT & GOVERNORS SHOULD NOT BE POLITICIANS

The ongoing political tussle between governor HR Bharadwaj & chief minister BS Yeddyurappa in Karnataka has not only turned ugly but has reached a new low in Indian polity. It is true there are some grave charges against Yeddyurappa and morally he should have stepped down till he is proven innocent in this case but the governor has also jumped the gun by giving a go ahead for the prosecution of Yeddyurappa before receiving the investigation report.

This is not the first time that the head of state has given a sanction for the prosecution of a state chief minister but the fact that they belong to opposition parties and the manner in which both the sides are acting clearly suggest that it has become a political war.

The time has come that the post of President & governor should be strictly reserved for individuals outside politics. The role of a President & governor is to over see that the elected government and political parties are performing their duty properly. In times of emergency & crisis they have to step in to protect the welfare of the people and the state.The notion that these posts are a mere rubber stamp with no power is not true. In times of constitutional crisis and emergency the role of a President & governors becomes extremely important. The post has a lot of significance and should be reserved only for highly educated and qualified individuals from across the spectrum.

But unfortunately in India this post has become a ‘medal’ to award the loyal party workers. Rarely do you find that the head of state is someone outside the political circle and belongs to another walk of life. Even the president’s post has become a reward for party allegiance. For example, Pratibha Patel was chosen by Sonia Gandhi to become the first lady President of India despite India having so many successful women with impeccable record in public life. Patel’s biggest edge was that she had been a loyal Congress worker and extremely close to the Gandhi family.Even today out of the thirty three governors in India a majority are politicians & bureaucrats. A majority of them were part of the Congress party at some stage or the other or held important bureaucratic positions during Congress rule at the centre.

Even when the BJP led NDA was in power it chose many BJP veterans as governors. No matter how unbiased the individual may try to be in most cases he/she ends up acting biased one way or the other. Especially during crunch situations the governor is expected to favour the party he or she has been associated with. To avoid such a scenario the constitution should be amended and it should be made mandatory that the President & governors are a non-politicians. India is rich when it comes to individuals who have been successful in different disciplines of life. The best examples of a head of state were former Presidents Dr.APJ Abdul Kalam & second president of India – Dr. Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan. Both had no political background & did true justice to the post.

It has been a Congress tradition to award its loyal party leaders the ‘medal of governorship’ at the end of their political careers. The same trend was followed by other parties when they came to power. Its time for a course correction and the Congress should take the lead by awarding this post only to individuals with no history of political affiliation. Not only will this avoid biased decisions but also bolster the image of a President & governor’s post.