The Middle East uprising that began in Tunisia and turned into a conflagration by the time it reached Egypt has caught the world attention like never before.After eighteen days of relentless protests, Hosni Mubarakh was finally ousted after thirty years of rule. So what does this ‘Egypt Uprising’ mean for the world and what will be its implications?
An interesting study by Larry Diamond on Arab world and democracy highlights a few interesting points as to why there are no democracies in the Arab world.
The study observes that the notion that Muslim countries are not successful democracies is not true. Twenty nine Muslim dominated countries have a reasonably descent record of political rights as compared to sixteen Arab countries. These include –Turkey, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Albania & Senegal.
Another interesting point illustrated in the study is that out of the sixteen Arab countries, eleven states are heavily depended on the rents from oil & gas exports. In some of these countries as much as 90% of the earnings come from these exports. Most of these countries are so cash rich that they don’t have to tax their own citizens. And that is also a part of the problem. These states do not develop the organic expectations of accountability that emerges when states make citizens pay tax.
The other argument could be that not all Arab countries have oil. Now in these countries the ‘geo-politics’ comes in to play. The two prominent countries that are not oil based economies are Jordan & Egypt. But the other factor that also binds these countries is that they thrive on U.S financial aid.
Since 1975, U.S. financial assistance to Egypt has totaled more than $28 billion. And this does not include the $50 billion that has flowed to that country in unconditional military aid since the 1978 Camp David Peace Accords.
Similarly since 2001, Jordan on an average has been receiving $ 650 million in the form of economic & military aid from the U.S. This has helped both the countries to spend on public jobs without charging steep taxes.
Not surprisingly, Egypt & Jordan are the only two Arab nations that have a peace treaty with Israel. Not only has this prevented any military attack on Israel from the numerous Arab nations including Iran but allowed US to create military bases on these countries to safe guard Israel from any external threat.
But these methods could work only for the last three decades. The 21st century has a new generation in place which is more determined and ambitious. Money alone would not comfort and satisfy them, they want democratic & political rights like the millions of youngsters around the world.
But as many cynics argue that Arabs are still not ready to handle democracy because there is a deep ethnic divide in many countries. This argument also does not hold true. India & Indonesia are two good examples that prove that no matter how fragmented and deep the ethnic divide maybe, democracy given all its flaws can work.
This new revolution is bound to have an impact on the Geo- political situation in the Middle East, especially on Israel. If after Egypt a few more uprisings lead to the fall of more authoritarian regimes in fellow Arab countries than that would change the complete political landscape. The most crucial factor that will decide the future of this region would be the popularity of ‘Right wing Islamic parties’.
A huge chunk in the Arab world, especially the youth is secular. Though many of them may be anti-US because of the Israel-Palestine issue but are not radical Islamists. For example in Egypt the ‘Muslim brotherhood’ is considered a hard right wing Islamic party. But will it find support from the likes of Wale Ghonim, the google executive who used social media & the internet as a tool to ignite the Egypt revolution for freedom is the big question.
The elections in Egypt will be a litmus test not only for the nation but for the whole Arab world as that would give a sense of what the new generation of Arabs is all about. These are not only interesting times for Arabs but the whole world, as the Egypt uprising may be just the beginning of a wave that may well change the geo-politics of this century.
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