THE EGYPT UPRISING: GAME CHANGER FOR THE WORLD?

The Middle East uprising that began in Tunisia and turned into a conflagration by the time it reached Egypt has caught the world attention like never before.After eighteen days of relentless protests, Hosni Mubarakh was finally ousted after thirty years of rule. So what does this ‘Egypt Uprising’ mean for the world and what will be its implications?

An interesting study by Larry Diamond on Arab world and democracy highlights a few interesting points as to why there are no democracies in the Arab world.
The study observes that the notion that Muslim countries are not successful democracies is not true. Twenty nine Muslim dominated countries have a reasonably descent record of political rights as compared to sixteen Arab countries. These include –Turkey, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Albania & Senegal.

Another interesting point illustrated in the study is that out of the sixteen Arab countries, eleven states are heavily depended on the rents from oil & gas exports. In some of these countries as much as 90% of the earnings come from these exports. Most of these countries are so cash rich that they don’t have to tax their own citizens. And that is also a part of the problem. These states do not develop the organic expectations of accountability that emerges when states make citizens pay tax.
The other argument could be that not all Arab countries have oil. Now in these countries the ‘geo-politics’ comes in to play. The two prominent countries that are not oil based economies are Jordan & Egypt. But the other factor that also binds these countries is that they thrive on U.S financial aid.
Since 1975, U.S. financial assistance to Egypt has totaled more than $28 billion. And this does not include the $50 billion that has flowed to that country in unconditional military aid since the 1978 Camp David Peace Accords.
Similarly since 2001, Jordan on an average has been receiving $ 650 million in the form of economic & military aid from the U.S. This has helped both the countries to spend on public jobs without charging steep taxes.

Not surprisingly, Egypt & Jordan are the only two Arab nations that have a peace treaty with Israel. Not only has this prevented any military attack on Israel from the numerous Arab nations including Iran but allowed US to create military bases on these countries to safe guard Israel from any external threat.
But these methods could work only for the last three decades. The 21st century has a new generation in place which is more determined and ambitious. Money alone would not comfort and satisfy them, they want democratic & political rights like the millions of youngsters around the world.

But as many cynics argue that Arabs are still not ready to handle democracy because there is a deep ethnic divide in many countries. This argument also does not hold true. India & Indonesia are two good examples that prove that no matter how fragmented and deep the ethnic divide maybe, democracy given all its flaws can work.
This new revolution is bound to have an impact on the Geo- political situation in the Middle East, especially on Israel. If after Egypt a few more uprisings lead to the fall of more authoritarian regimes in fellow Arab countries than that would change the complete political landscape. The most crucial factor that will decide the future of this region would be the popularity of ‘Right wing Islamic parties’.

A huge chunk in the Arab world, especially the youth is secular. Though many of them may be anti-US because of the Israel-Palestine issue but are not radical Islamists. For example in Egypt the ‘Muslim brotherhood’ is considered a hard right wing Islamic party. But will it find support from the likes of Wale Ghonim, the google executive who used social media & the internet as a tool to ignite the Egypt revolution for freedom is the big question.

The elections in Egypt will be a litmus test not only for the nation but for the whole Arab world as that would give a sense of what the new generation of Arabs is all about. These are not only interesting times for Arabs but the whole world, as the Egypt uprising may be just the beginning of a wave that may well change the geo-politics of this century.

KASAB & SHAHZAD: THE COMMON LINK

Last week Ajmal Amir Kasab was finally handed over the capital punishment as expected. In the same week Faisal Shahzad, who attempted to detonate a bomb in Times Square was arrested from JFK airport in New York. US officials’ claim that Shahzad has confessed that he indeed did try to blow up a bomb kept inside a car at Time Square to kill and terrorize people.

On the face of it Kasab & Shahzad have nothing in common except the fact that they both hail from Pakistan and both were trained by the same terror establishment which is based in Pakistan. Otherwise both of them have pretty distinct backgrounds. Kasab was born in a poor

family from a remote village in Punjab, largely illiterate and unemployed, who briefly worked as a labourer in Lahore before he joined the training camp of LeT. While on the other hand Shahzad had a privileged upbringing in a decent family. His father was in the armed forces and he mainly stayed in the big cities of Pakistan and received good education. He moved to the US in 1999 where he got his degree in computer engineering and also worked in various companies.

For many it has come as a shock that given Shahzad’s background and education he still chose the fundamentalist approach. But there is one ‘root’ cause that actually underlines a similarity between Kasab & Shahzad. Both the men were going through financial problems at different levels. Kasab in his confession stated on camera that his trainers had promised 1, 50,000 rupees for his family if he did his job well. Incidentally, according to the initial reports that are emerging with regards to Shahzad suggest that even he was a victim of the financial crisis that had engulfed United States last year.

The Islamic fundamentalist groups have exploited this situation faced by young Muslims across income levels to the fullest. Though, this is not the only factor that must have influenced the minds of these two individuals but was definitely a vital factor. These examples clearly demonstrate that the Islamic fundamentalist groups have a streamlined propaganda and indoctrination process in place. The pattern and the approach vary depending on the background of the individual. For example Kasab in his confession stated that he first got introduced to LeT through a pamphlet which was been distributed in his village by LeT members. The pamphlet asked young village boys to join their training camps. The case of Shahzad is not an isolated one involving a young, educated Muslim been swayed by an Islamic terror group. The involvement of Ahmad brothers in the failed terrorist attack that was attempted at the Glasgow airport & London in 2007 also illustrates the sophisticated approach that has been adopted by these groups to indoctrinate these educated men.

Till now poverty has been considered the root cause for violence-whether its naxal based terrorism or even religious based terrorism to an extent, but now this new form of ‘urban financial crisis’ that has emerged in the recent years is another dangerous phenomenon. Hopefully this won’t become another catalyst that would give birth to urban based right wing terrorism.

TIME FOR INDIA TO TALK TOUGH

On 18th July 2005 when George W Bush and Dr Manmohan Singh jointly announced the historic nuclear agreement in Washington, many thought that this would be the beginning of a relationship that would dominate the world in the 21st century. Some even compared it to the US-Israel relationship that has been rock steady for the last 6 decades. But Dr Singh would have never imagined at that time that the nuclear deal which was the symbol of this new love affair between the two nations for which he also put his chair and the government on the line in 2008 (The Left pull support from the UPA) would start loosing its sheen so early.


Bush and Dr Singh were the architects of this new strategic relationship which was created on mutual benefit & trust. But unfortunately for India the meaning of the word ‘mutual benefit’ which was defined by these two leaders in 2005 changed in January 2009 when Barack Obama took over as the president of the United States of America.

In the last one year there have been three key issues that clearly indicate Washington’s priority and preference. The thorniest issue has been the 26/11 investigation. From the time of 26/11, India’s reliance on the US to pressurize Pakistan to act against the Pakistan based terror camps has been a complete failure. Yes, the US has publicly always made statements that Pakistan must act and speed up the process. But the reality still remains that Hafiz Saeed, the alleged mastermind of 26/11 is still roaming around scot free. Similarly when David Headley admitted his role in the 26/11 attack, the US officials immediately made it clear to India that Headley will not be extradited to India. The only assurance given was that Indian investigators would be given access to him for questioning. How soon and for what period is still not known. The third issue has been the India-Iran relationship. The US has been continuously pressurizing India not to do any business with Iran. India has been in talks with Iran over the multi billion dollar gas pipeline which is pivotal for India’s growing energy needs.

Lets take an hypothetical example with regards to 26/11 investigations. Had the US been in India’s position and say Iraq or even Iran had been directly responsible for 9/11 then would it had ever allowed India to do business with either Iran or Iraq? It launched an all out war against Afghanistan in 2002. Not only did it attack Afghanistan but took along with it a host of sycophants like the UK, Australia etc, who were not the victims of 9/11. But on the other hand now the US is not only providing financial aid to Pakistan but also considers it a big partner in its fight against the Taliban. And for India, Pakistan’s soil was used to attack Mumbai on 26/11.

Similarly to the issue of Iran with which the US has had a long standing problem and till date the US has been alleging that Iran has a hidden nuclear weapons program in place which is dangerous for the world. Washington has been pressing for more sanctions and pressurizing New Delhi not to do any business with them. Iran is a democratic state and even if there are grey areas in their nuclear plan even then it should be handled through a dialogue in the same manner as the US has been advocating India on the Pakistan issue. Washington has all this while pushing India to have a dialogue with Islamabad even though they have failed to deliver on the 26/11 front. Washington has no right to tell New Delhi not to work with Iran. Washington has never had any problem with Israel, which has all along developed weapons and used them against Palestine.

And the last but the most major issue relates to Headley. US attacked Afghanistan citing that Osama Bin Laden is hiding there. Ironically, one of the main culprits (Headley) who has accepted his role in 26/11 is sitting in the US but the victim India cannot extradite him. But hypothetically, had India given shelter or even arrested Osama then was there ever a chance that the US would have agreed to him not been extradited to the US?

All these three issues highlight the double standards that have been followed by the US administration. It also reflects that Obama’s priority is not India but Afghanistan for which it needs Pakistan. That’s the precise reason why it is not handing over Headley as that would lead to a complete exposure of Pakistan’s role.

Dr Singh who is currently in the US for the nuclear summit and also met Obama should step up the gas. It is essential to convey the message to their US counterparts that 26/11 investigation is as important for India as the 9/11 attack was for the US. And its time that India stands firm even on the Iran issue. Because the nuclear deal is now history & there isn’t any more big presents coming from the US. If India stifles under US pressure then its journey to become the superpower of this century would be defeated.

10 CHALLENGES INDIA FACES IN 2010

The year 2009 was a satisfying year for India. Been able grow at an impressive rate of 7% at the time when the whole world was reeling under recession and also emerging as a major global player on all key global issues were some of the biggest achievments . But the year 2010 will bring with it even bigger challenges which will truly test the might of the nation. Here are the 10 major challenges for the year 2010.

1) Price rise- Even though India was able to fight global recession to a great extent, the rise of basic food items has hit the common man badly. Currently the food inflation is at a decade high of 20 percent.The government will have to ensure that prices are back to normal levels at the earliest otherwise the economic growth will look meaningless for the middle class & poor people of this nation.

2) Terror threat- Post 26/11 no major terror attack has struck India but the Headley-Rana case is a chilling reminder of the vulnerable security situation. From the time Chidambaram has taken over as union home minister, the inteligence sharing has improved drastically. But there are still many grey areas. The threat of another 26/11 type attack continues to loom.

3) Commonwealth Games- This has become a matter of pride for the nation. This is a golden opportunity for India to showcase itself to the world as a potential superpower. China was able to do it by hosting the 2008 Olympic Games. But with the IOC skeptical about the preparation made so far, the onus is on the administration to act quickly at any cost. If Delhi is able to pull this off succesfully then the stereotype of India been just a poor nation and full of call centres might be finally broken. This is a huge challenge as the nation’s reputation is at stake.

4) The Naxal threat- The naxals proved in 2009 that they are the biggest security threat to this country. With the naxal influence growing from the state to state the government will have to do much more to restrict this threat. Apart from dialogue with the Naxals, enhancement of police weapons & special task force are significant immediate steps that the government will have to take.

5) Implementation of flagship programs- The iconic projects and flagship programmes of the UPA government are suffering from implementation blues. The delivery monitoring unit in the Prime Minister’s Office that assessed the performance of 18 schemes has found that only the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) is doing well. The Rajiv Gandhi Yojna (Housing scheme) & Right to education are some key projects that are yet to take off. Making sure they take off in the right direction would be essential this year.

6) Creation of smaller states- The Telangana issue has triggered of a debate which would shape the future of India. Having smaller states could prove to be boon as it would lead to more development, lesser corruption and more decentralization. But it is imperative that the government comes out with clear set of policies for carving out smaller states. Creating states merely on ethnic or linguistic lines doesn’t make sense at this point of time. Economics should be the driving point. Setting up a committee to set the guidelines should be done at the earliest.

7) Autonomy for Jammu & Kashmir- This is a thorny issue that is bound to create huge ripples but probably is the right way ahead. Critics argue that this will create a safe haven for terrorists which will have a direct impact on Indian security. By granting autonomy to J&K, the government just might tilt the valley’s support in its favour. With uncertainty attached to Pakistan’s democratic future, this is the practical way ahead.

8) Foreign policy decisions- India has been criticized in the last few years for going the US way on international political issues. The vote against Iran was seen in this light. On issues like climate change India has been able to guard its interest. But will it stifle under US pressure on large international political issues is the big question.

9) How to deal with neighbours- This question has haunted India for decades now. To talk or not to talk to Pakistan is a big question. So far India has resisted from taking a very rigid stand. But it still needs to find ways to make Pakistan act against the perpetrators of 26/11. Without that there would be no meaning to any dialogues with them. Similarly the China issue is even dicier. On issues like climate change both countries have lobbied together but the Arunachal Pradesh issue is the tricky one where trusting China could be a mistake.

10) Police Reforms- P.Chidambaram has been raising this point for sometime now. The police needs immediate reforms. The recent cases of Ruchika molestation and Mumbai cops dancing in an underworld party exposed the naked truth. Also the cops need better training & weapons to fight terror attacks.