WHAT IS THE NEW BJP?

Sushma Swaraj has taken over from LK Advani as the leader of the opposition, putting curtains on an exciting political journey stretching over 5 decades. Advani will be heading the BJP parliamentary board (a newly created post) & the NDA, none of them will have any significant bearing on the BJP political strategy. No matter how much the BJP shouts that Advani is still very much the main driver of the party, the reality remains that the Vajpayee-Advani era has finally come to an end.

But the big question remains- Is the new BJP leadership competent enough to resurrect the fortunes of the party that has been hammered comprehensively in the last 6 years. There are multiple challenges that the party still faces.


Who is the real leader?- Even though Sushma Swaraj is going to lead the party in the Lok Sabha & Arun Jaitley in the Rajya Sabha, there is still confusion as to who is the undisputed leader of the BJP. With the low profile Nitin Gadkari taking over as the BJP president; party workers are a bit disillusioned about the real leadership. The RSS handpicked Gadkari faces even more difficulties. He has been handpicked to implement the RSS agenda within the party, but with the Swaraj- Jaitley combine trying to adopt the moderate line of thought, infighting is bound to continue. The past 6 years have clearly shown that BJP has failed to work as a collective unit. The success they tasted in the 90’s was because they were led by a strong and commanding leader- A.B.Vajpayee. Vajpayee was the undisputed leader of the party. Of course he was never authoritative in his conduct and always took decisions after consulting Advani and other senior leaders. But the hierarchy was very clearly laid out, eliminating any sort of differences within the party. But with the current crop, there are no signs of any unity or cohesiveness.

The ideology issue- After suffering two back to back defeats in Lok Sabha elections, the very basic dilemma the party faces is the ideology issue. The party rode to power in the 90’s on the back of right wing Hindutva issue. But due to a huge coalition, the party was never able to deliver on that agenda. The Hindutva story was embraced to an extent in the 90’s. But the new millennium had changed the mind set of the Indian citizen. The staunch urban voter that supported the party in the 90’s now wanted development & infrastructure instead of Mandir & uniform civil code. The party failed to understand the pulse of the middle class voters which had transformed over the years. The new Indian voter was more secular & moderate in its thinking. And even now the party is confused which route to adopt-the more inclusive approach, one based on the development plank cutting across religious lines or to go back to the 90’s hindutva plank, which the voter has already rejected. They cannot afford to hang in between. They will have to choose a more forward looking ideology which is more inclusive in nature.

RSS: Liability or the Guiding force- The party will have to emphatically decide the role of the RSS in the new BJP. Will the RSS continue to set the agenda and have a say on all the major issues or is the party now ready to break those shackles and act on its own given that the party now has firm roots. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has made his intention clears that he wants the RSS to be the guiding force of the party. He wants the party to go back to the hard core Hindutva ideology to make a come back.

The new leadership’s immediate task is to come out with a clear ideology. The top leadership will have to be on the same page if they are serious about reviving the party. The party needs a complete revamp both on the organizational & ideological front. A clear hierarchy should be formed and it should be made sure that it is followed by all. The RSS has to be told that the party wants to work as an autonomous unit. If it fails to distance itself from the RSS at least on the political front, it would be really difficult for them to bounce back. BJP will have to clearly spell out the role of the RSS in the new BJP. These are some tough questions that the leaders will have to answer; otherwise the party will fade away in the same fashion as the Janta Dal party did in the 90’s. Time for the new BJP to take some tough decision… It’s now or never…

ADVANI- FALL OF THE GIANT

In the beginning of 1990’s when the Ram Mandir movement was at its peak, Advani symbolized ‘Hindutva’, which many thought would change the future course of this country. From being the poster boy of Hindutva to the controversial ‘home minister’ during the NDA regime to being the prime minister in the waiting, Advani has gone through plethora of highs & lows.

But unfortunately for Advani who once described himself as the prime minister in the waiting, that wait has ended on an eternal note. His 60 years political career is almost over on an all time low. The rising star of the BJP in the 90’s has been reduced to a leader minus authority of a directionless party. Advani build the BJP from the scratch to one of the biggest political party that is now struggling to keep afloat.



Over Shadowed by Vajpayee-The BJP from the time of its birth has relied completely on Vajpayee & Advani. Their personalities were quite contrasting from each other but they managed to build the party into a strong political entity. If Advani was the mass leader who created ripples by taking out the Rath yatra in 1990 that bolstered BJP’s electoral prospects, Vajpayee emerged as the liberal face of the right wing party and managed to lead a complex coalition for 6 years that helped BJP taste power for the first time. But there was a major difference between the 2 leaders…

Credibility Factor- What is it that made Vajpayee a more acceptable face even though Advani was considered a more natural leader due to his mass appeal? Vajpayee was a ‘consensus builder’ who had the charisma to not only unify his party but also various political outfits cutting across ideologies & regions. Even though BJP was a rightist, pro- hindutva party, it was Vajpayee’s credibility that brought various centrist & left inclined parties under the NDA government for 6 years. Advani was a respectful leader but not a credible one. And that is what went against him. It was his inconsistencies that led to his downfall rather then factionalism as many would believe.

The Ayodhya failure- During the ‘Ram Rath Yathra’ in the 1990's, Advani kept emphasizing that the Ram temple would be build only at the ‘exact site’ in Ayodhya and no where else. The Babri mosque was demolished in 1992 which he described as a tragic event but that did make him the darling of the hardliners. When the NDA did come to power, many within the BJP wanted him to be the PM to fulfill the Hindutva vision which he had campaigned for all this while. But he was not acceptable to other allies within the NDA due to his hardliner’s image. And when in power, he failed to push any of the promises he made which thrashed the aspirations of many hardliners. He lost their support from that time.

Controversial Administrator- His stint as the Home minister & Deputy PM were marked by controversies. He failed to act during the Gujarat riots when thousands were killed during the communal riots. The state was burning but Advani as the 'home minister' failed to control the situation. This did not go down well with his allies. The Kandahar hijacking was another question mark on his ability to deliver during crunch situations. His inability to act during tough time’s projected his image of a ’weak’ administrator who lacked the potential to lead this country.



The Jinnah Controversy- His Jinnah remarks were yet again another sign of inconsistency. A man who through out lived on the idea of ‘Akhand Bharat’ (Undivided India) suddenly called Jinnah, (the hate symbol for the BJP) a secular person is something that even the most liberal intellectuals couldn’t digest. He had to pay a price by stepping down from the post of BJP president. But this was a big gamble that Advani played in order to change his image among the masses. He knew in order to become PM he had to be a more liberal face like Vajpayee. That gamble failed with the 2009 election defeat. The biggest blow for him was the loss of RSS support, his backbone, which all this while projected him as the 'Mascot' of Hindutva

2009 Election Debacle- He gave his best during the 2009 elections. He raised the political temperature by hitting out directly on Manmohan Singh, who all this while discharged his duties silently. The idea of attacking Manmohan Singh on the personality issue rather than governance also went against him. In the personality clash, Dr Singh emerged as the winner thanks to Congress's thumping victory

The Rise of the Rebels- Advani’s decision to stick around for some more time made his position even more vulnerable. His decision to reward the likes of Jaitleys, Swarajs gave way for rebellion & indiscipline within the party. The rebels questioned his authority which had emaciated within the party.

The Jaswant Fiasco- The final nail in the coffin was the sacking of his old friend & loyalist, Jaswant Singh. Ironically Jaswant Singh was the only one to back him staunchly in 2005 for his Jinnah comments. In all fairness to Advani even if he wanted to defend Jaswant Singh, it was not possible because hardliners like Modi & Katiyar wanted some tough action. And Advani needed their support for survival at least till he makes a gracious exit.

Advani will no doubt be remembered as one of the strongest leaders who changed the face of Indian polity in the 1990's His political career was scripted by the RSS, which made him a hero. While Vajpayee made a gracious exit on his own terms, Advani had to be shown the door in a polite manner by the same RSS. Leaving a stable BJP behind would be the best way to say goodbye to his long & adventurous political career. He is known to be a fighter, but winning this final battle of his political career would be a task…

WINNER & LOSER : ELECTIONS 2009

Election 2009 was special for more than one reason. In this blog, I am listing out the biggest winners & losers of this election. The winners are those , who will have a enduring impact in Indian polity. And the losers are those, who had very high stakes & have suffered a major setback

THE BIGGEST WINNERS OF ELECTIONS 2009

Manmohan Singh
SINGH IS KING: Election 2009 was the mandate for Manmohan Singh. His honest and decent image, along with the unshakable stand on the nuclear deal, made him emerge, as one of the best prime minister ever. He is the face of reforms & progress that can give India a better future.


Rahul Gandhi
THE SAVIOUR: He has emerged as the messiah of the poor & youth. The youth wanted a leader who was forward looking and could lead them in the future, while the poor wanted a leader who can fulfil their needs and aspiratons. Rahul Gandhi is that leader. His decision of going alone in UP was the turning point for the Congress.


Sonia Gandhi
THE UNDISPUTED LEADER: This election puts to rest, as to who is the strongest leader of this great nation. The manner in which she held the UPA coalition together was nothing short of remarkable. Her faith in Manmohan Singh as the prime ministerial candidate & Rahul Gandhi to lead the Congress campaign paid huge dividends. The Congress has been revived, thanks to her relentless efforts.

Nitish Kumar
THE PERFORMER: In an election that saw the power of regional leaders emaciating, he emerged as the strongest regional leader. His performance as the chief minister of Bihar has won him accolades across party lines and his popularity has surged across North India. His success underscores the fact, that people want development over caste & communal politics.

Mamata Banerjee
THE REBEL: Finally after 3 decades the ‘Left’ hegomony in West Bengal has been broken. Not only has she challenged the future of the 'Left' in their strong hold, but has also emerged as the ‘Voice of Bengal’.

The Indian Voter
THE KING: The Indian Voter has emerged as the King maker and chosen its own destiny. By choosing a secular, stable & strong government, it has proved that India is not only the biggest but the most powerful & vibrant democracy of the world.

Election Commission
THE UNSUNG HEROS: The most under-rated people of this election. Election Commission has proved that in this complex country, beset by terrorism & dirty politics, it is still possible to hold free & fair elections. The EC’s meticulous planning and execution is remarkable. A round of applause, for the team, that made this excercise a resounding success.

THE BIGGEST LOSERS
L.K Advani
END OF THE ROAD: His dream of becoming the prime minister crashed. The milestones of his great political career included the formation of BJP & the ‘Ram Mandir’ campaign which bolstered his popularity among the Hindu harliners. But he lacked the charisma and acceptability that Vajpayee enjoyed.


Narendra Modi
THE FAILED CHARMER: Many thought that the BJP had found the charismatic personality in him which was missing post Vajpayee. But his charm & magic was restricted to Gujarat. The star campaigner of the BJP failed to garner any extra support outside his stronghold. His unacceptability among other NDA parties, may dash his hopes of becoming the prime minister.


J Jayalalitha
OVER CONFIDENCE: Her overconfidence before elections was one of the biggest factors for not posting an impresssive performance. People were incredulous about the promises she made with regards to the ‘Tamil’ issue in Sri Lanka. Even a strong pre poll alliance could not help her to register a huge victory.

Mayawati
DELHI IS FAR AWAY: This election was a reality check for Mayawati. She still has a long way to travel, before she reaches Delhi. During the UP assembly elections, her ‘social enginneering’ earned her a thumping victory. But her failure to live up to their expectations, led to a disappointing performance this time around

The Yadavs (Mulayam, Lalu Prasad & Ram Vilas Paswan)
NO WHERE TO GO: Their selfish and arrogant aprroach pre elections has cost them dearly. Not only did they loose badly, but also lost out on an opportunity, of becoming a part of a stronger government at the centre. With all three out of power both at the centre & state, the future looks bleak.

Prakash Karat
BROUGH T TO THE GROUND: His dogmatic attitude and ideology, which is out of tune with reality has brought him & his party to the ground. His stand on the nuclear deal, which he potrayed as ‘anti- national’ and continous blackmailing during the UPA regime back fired. The masses taught him & his party a lesson.

Published on http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/slideshows/election-winners/manmohan-singh.html - 21st May 2009

http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/slideshows/election-losers/l-k-advani.html - - 21st May 2009

THE GRAND OLD PRIME MINISTER OF YOUNG INDIA

Elections 2009 are around the corner, setting the buzz as to who would be the next Prime Minister of India. L k Advani is the prime ministerial candidate for the BJP lead NDA, while Dr. Manmohan Singh is all set to be projected as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress lead UPA. It won’t be fair to conclude that these elections will be Advani V/S Manmohan, as Indian elections are not about personalities but diverse issues spearheaded by a plethora of political parties. And in the age of coalition politics, the 3rd name that has emerged as the possible contender for thePrime Minister’s post is Mayawati, the undisputed leader of the Bhahujan Samaj Party and the front runner to be the prime ministerial candidate of the BSP-Left lead third front. In this blog I won’t be elaborating on how much chance does each candidate fancy of occupying the most important political portfolio, but want to throw light at the age profile of the primeministerial candidates.
Dr.Manmohan Singh is going to be 77 in 2009. No doubt he has been an honest leader, argubly the most qualified leader in the world to lead a nation. In 2004, when this humble ex-finance minister of India, went on to become the accidental prime minister, he was 72. This was around the same time when the India rising wave had started making noise across the world. And during his tenure, India made its presence felt across the globe like never before. The biggest nations of the world went on to appreciate that India would surely emerge as the ‘Super power’ of the 21st century along wit China. This would also mark the end of US dominance and European pseudo super power.The main reason attributed for India to attain this new global status was because of its ‘youth’ power.
LK Advani is 5 years older to Dr Singh. He will be completing 82 this year. If Lk Advani does become the Prime Minister this year, he will go on to become the oldest politician to be elected as a leader of a country and the 2nd oldest leader in the world. If one looks at the list of oldest leaders of the world, there are only ‘two’ legitimate elected leaders- 1)Abdoulaye Wade, President of Senegal , who is going to be 83 this year ( he was elected in 2000 at the age of 74 and re-elected at the age of 81 in 2007)and 2)Dr Singh who is 77. Mayawati is probably the only young face among the three candidates aiming for the top post. She could become the Prime Minister at the age of 53. But she can’t be considered a candidate yet because she has no official support yet from any party. So that leaves us with two official candidates running for the top government post of the country.
Ironically, as mentioned earlier, India’s youth power is considered as its USP to become a super power. The 20th century super power USA’s population age is ‘65’. By 2030 1 out of every 5 Americans would be 65 and above. And yet they elected Barak Obama who is 47.Much younger than the current population age projected. He went on to defeat John Mcain who is 72. If we look at the other major global leaders, they all are much younger than their Indian counterparts. E.g. Gordon Brownof Britain is 57, Nicolas Sarkozy of France is 54, Angela Merkel of Germany is 54 etc. In India 54% of the population is below ‘35’ and yet the average age of the top two leaders is ‘80’!!!!
The last time India had a Prime Minister below the age of 60 was in 1989, when VP Singh became the prime minister at the age of 59 for less than a year. Rajiv Gandhi can be considered as the only young Prime Minister this nation got.He won a landslide victory (Post Indira Gandhi assassination) in 1984 and became the prime minister at the age of 40. At a time when majority of the countries are electing young and dynamic leaders to tackle the contemporary global issues, the probable super power of this century might go on to elect the oldest prime minister ever!!!
The average age of an Indian MP is 53. 14% of the MPs are above the age of 65, while only 6.5% are below the age of 35. A country with 54% of the population below the age of 35 has only 34 MPs of the same age group in the parliament. The root of the problem lies here, of not having young politicians contesting elections. Its easier said then done because not a single party encourages young people to contest election unless he/she comes with a political lineage.So forget getting a prime minister below the age of 35, getting more MPs and more people young people contesting election is the most fundamental way to inject some youth in Indian politics. Lack of dynamic leaders is another problem that parties are not able to project young leaders who can match the average age of an Indian MP (53). In BJP there is already major infighting between the second generation leaders. After Advani ,Narendra Modi who is touching 59 is considered the favorite to lead the party in the next elections. But here again without venturing in the personality issue, he too by the time become a prime ministerial candidate would be in his mid 60’s.
Pragmatic thinking and given the dimensions of Indian politics there are only two scenarios in which India can get a young prime minister in the near future. One if Mayawati with help of small minded parties comes to power. She at the age of 53 will be considered a young prime minister. But this whole Old V/s young issue is not merely restricted to the age factor. A‘Young leader ‘is asscociated with newer ideas and a fresh outlook, which I am afraid Mayawati lacks completely. She hasn’t displayed an iota of new age ideologies, but instead new age electoral politics which focuses on social engineering.
The second possible senario,for India to get a young prime minister in the immediate future is Rahul Gandhi . For the up coming elections, a faction of the Congress (sycophants) were demanding that he be named the prime ministerial candidate. But Sonia Gandhi’s faith in Manmohan Singh to lead for one more term along with giving Rahul Gandhi more time to gear up for the major role, delayed this declaration. Without deviating from the main point, the irony remains that the only way India can get a young leader with some amount of faith and credibility in the next few years is through ‘dynastic’ politics. People won’t have a major problem in accepting him as a prime minister since he is educated and comes across more sincere, but the problem is that this reiterates the fact that only power, money, political lineage and years of sycophancy can lead one to rise the ladder. This leaves not much scope for a free, liberal and fresh young thinking politican to rise to the top post in this country without any political lineage or divisive political ideology.
Janagran and Tata have initiated an awarness campaign asking younger people to sign up for voting. It’s a valiant effort and appreciative one also. It’s a good start to involve youth in todays political system. India does not need just one ‘Obama’ type personality to resurrect the political inclination in today’s generation. For that to happen Indian polity requires new faces and fresh ideoligies clubbed with new ideas that they can relate to. It needs leaders who can connect with this set of audience and raise new issues, not the ones we have been hearing for the past 6 decades. And if the steps are not taken soon, the average age of an Indian MP will remain the same for years to come. And we would still be choosing leaders for the top post with an average age of 80.!!!While Janagran would have launched a new campiagn called ‘jawan pradhan mantri chahiye’ abhiyan, there would still be many of us without voter id cards....

Published on - http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/article/election-2009.html