Sonia and Rahul Gandhi’s recent political rhetoric to woo farmers and tribals gives a clear idea of Congress’s strategy for the coming four years before the general elections of 2014. Rahul’s staunch support for tribals against Anil Agarwal-owned Vedanta Group and Sonia’s support towards farmers has set the ball rolling for 2014 elections.
In the 2009 elections, three factors played a key role in bolstering Congress’s strength in the Lok Sabha:
1) The consolidated vote of the minorities, primarily the Muslims, which form 14% of the total votes.
2) The urban middle class voters, who traditionally voted for the BJP, overwhelmingly supported the Congress.
3) The Uttar Pradesh surprise where the party won 21 seats; thanks to the stupendous support it got from the farmers and Muslims. The Congress won 206 seats which were way better than the 2004 tally when they won only 145 seats. But, surprisingly, the UPA is finding it harder to cope with allies even though the ‘Left parties’ have become irrelevant this time around.
With Dr. Manmohan Singh serving his last term as the Prime Minister, the Gandhis realize that the call to make Rahul Gandhi as the next Prime Minister are going to get louder in 2014. Congress observers and insiders say that Rahul is very clear that he wants to head a Congress government without any coalition partners. And now, after regaining the confidence of Muslims and urban voters, the Congress wants to win the support of the remaining crucial vote banks.
Tribals form 8.2% of the total population of India according the 2001 census. Between 1947 and 2000, around 60 million people are estimated to have lost their means of livelihood in the name of development — of which a significant 40 per cent are tribal people. This initiative by the biggest political heavy weight - Rahul Gandhi is bound to get huge support among the tribals.
With over 65% of the population dependent on agriculture, the Congress does realize that farmers are not only a big vote bank but can turn the tide of any election. In the previous election - the farmers’ loan waiver scheme played a huge role in tapping the rural voters. Mamata’s political resurrection in West Bengal; thanks to the land acquisition issue and the farmers protest in Uttar Pradesh have a clear underlying message – take up the farmers’ prime cause and reap electoral benefits.
No wonder then that Rahul and Sonia have their objectives clear: to win the support of these two critical sections which will be instrumental to win a clear majority. But the peril of this strategy is that this could pose a worry for the middle class. In both these instances, it is the development and industrialization issues that will take a back seat and that may send a wrong message to the middle class which has been the biggest beneficiary of the Indian growth story. Though Rahul’s big strength is his popularity among the youth, the middle class gets easily wooed by symbolic gestures. Remember in the last election Dr. Manmohan Singh’s gamble to put his chair on the line for the nuclear deal did wonders for the Congress in urban centers.
The Gandhis are known to keep a close eye on the ground zero and they will try to strike a balance between development and social issues. But even a slight wrong footing could change the equation. It is a dangerous path that the mother-son duo is treading but risk is something that they are used to and this time it will be no different.
Showing posts with label Sonia Gandhi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sonia Gandhi. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Saturday, May 23, 2009
WINNER & LOSER : ELECTIONS 2009
Election 2009 was special for more than one reason. In this blog, I am listing out the biggest winners & losers of this election. The winners are those , who will have a enduring impact in Indian polity. And the losers are those, who had very high stakes & have suffered a major setback
THE BIGGEST WINNERS OF ELECTIONS 2009
Manmohan Singh
SINGH IS KING: Election 2009 was the mandate for Manmohan Singh. His honest and decent image, along with the unshakable stand on the nuclear deal, made him emerge, as one of the best prime minister ever. He is the face of reforms & progress that can give India a better future.
Rahul Gandhi
THE SAVIOUR: He has emerged as the messiah of the poor & youth. The youth wanted a leader who was forward looking and could lead them in the future, while the poor wanted a leader who can fulfil their needs and aspiratons. Rahul Gandhi is that leader. His decision of going alone in UP was the turning point for the Congress.
Sonia Gandhi
THE UNDISPUTED LEADER: This election puts to rest, as to who is the strongest leader of this great nation. The manner in which she held the UPA coalition together was nothing short of remarkable. Her faith in Manmohan Singh as the prime ministerial candidate & Rahul Gandhi to lead the Congress campaign paid huge dividends. The Congress has been revived, thanks to her relentless efforts.
Nitish Kumar
THE PERFORMER: In an election that saw the power of regional leaders emaciating, he emerged as the strongest regional leader. His performance as the chief minister of Bihar has won him accolades across party lines and his popularity has surged across North India. His success underscores the fact, that people want development over caste & communal politics.
Mamata Banerjee
THE REBEL: Finally after 3 decades the ‘Left’ hegomony in West Bengal has been broken. Not only has she challenged the future of the 'Left' in their strong hold, but has also emerged as the ‘Voice of Bengal’.
The Indian Voter
THE KING: The Indian Voter has emerged as the King maker and chosen its own destiny. By choosing a secular, stable & strong government, it has proved that India is not only the biggest but the most powerful & vibrant democracy of the world.
Election Commission
THE UNSUNG HEROS: The most under-rated people of this election. Election Commission has proved that in this complex country, beset by terrorism & dirty politics, it is still possible to hold free & fair elections. The EC’s meticulous planning and execution is remarkable. A round of applause, for the team, that made this excercise a resounding success.
THE BIGGEST LOSERS
L.K Advani
END OF THE ROAD: His dream of becoming the prime minister crashed. The milestones of his great political career included the formation of BJP & the ‘Ram Mandir’ campaign which bolstered his popularity among the Hindu harliners. But he lacked the charisma and acceptability that Vajpayee enjoyed.
Narendra Modi
THE FAILED CHARMER: Many thought that the BJP had found the charismatic personality in him which was missing post Vajpayee. But his charm & magic was restricted to Gujarat. The star campaigner of the BJP failed to garner any extra support outside his stronghold. His unacceptability among other NDA parties, may dash his hopes of becoming the prime minister.
J Jayalalitha
OVER CONFIDENCE: Her overconfidence before elections was one of the biggest factors for not posting an impresssive performance. People were incredulous about the promises she made with regards to the ‘Tamil’ issue in Sri Lanka. Even a strong pre poll alliance could not help her to register a huge victory.
Mayawati
DELHI IS FAR AWAY: This election was a reality check for Mayawati. She still has a long way to travel, before she reaches Delhi. During the UP assembly elections, her ‘social enginneering’ earned her a thumping victory. But her failure to live up to their expectations, led to a disappointing performance this time around
The Yadavs (Mulayam, Lalu Prasad & Ram Vilas Paswan)
NO WHERE TO GO: Their selfish and arrogant aprroach pre elections has cost them dearly. Not only did they loose badly, but also lost out on an opportunity, of becoming a part of a stronger government at the centre. With all three out of power both at the centre & state, the future looks bleak.
Prakash Karat
BROUGH T TO THE GROUND: His dogmatic attitude and ideology, which is out of tune with reality has brought him & his party to the ground. His stand on the nuclear deal, which he potrayed as ‘anti- national’ and continous blackmailing during the UPA regime back fired. The masses taught him & his party a lesson.
Published on http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/slideshows/election-winners/manmohan-singh.html - 21st May 2009
http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/slideshows/election-losers/l-k-advani.html - - 21st May 2009
THE BIGGEST WINNERS OF ELECTIONS 2009
Manmohan Singh
SINGH IS KING: Election 2009 was the mandate for Manmohan Singh. His honest and decent image, along with the unshakable stand on the nuclear deal, made him emerge, as one of the best prime minister ever. He is the face of reforms & progress that can give India a better future.
Rahul Gandhi
THE SAVIOUR: He has emerged as the messiah of the poor & youth. The youth wanted a leader who was forward looking and could lead them in the future, while the poor wanted a leader who can fulfil their needs and aspiratons. Rahul Gandhi is that leader. His decision of going alone in UP was the turning point for the Congress.
Sonia Gandhi
THE UNDISPUTED LEADER: This election puts to rest, as to who is the strongest leader of this great nation. The manner in which she held the UPA coalition together was nothing short of remarkable. Her faith in Manmohan Singh as the prime ministerial candidate & Rahul Gandhi to lead the Congress campaign paid huge dividends. The Congress has been revived, thanks to her relentless efforts.
Nitish Kumar
THE PERFORMER: In an election that saw the power of regional leaders emaciating, he emerged as the strongest regional leader. His performance as the chief minister of Bihar has won him accolades across party lines and his popularity has surged across North India. His success underscores the fact, that people want development over caste & communal politics.
Mamata Banerjee
THE REBEL: Finally after 3 decades the ‘Left’ hegomony in West Bengal has been broken. Not only has she challenged the future of the 'Left' in their strong hold, but has also emerged as the ‘Voice of Bengal’.
The Indian Voter
THE KING: The Indian Voter has emerged as the King maker and chosen its own destiny. By choosing a secular, stable & strong government, it has proved that India is not only the biggest but the most powerful & vibrant democracy of the world.
Election Commission
THE UNSUNG HEROS: The most under-rated people of this election. Election Commission has proved that in this complex country, beset by terrorism & dirty politics, it is still possible to hold free & fair elections. The EC’s meticulous planning and execution is remarkable. A round of applause, for the team, that made this excercise a resounding success.
THE BIGGEST LOSERS
L.K Advani
END OF THE ROAD: His dream of becoming the prime minister crashed. The milestones of his great political career included the formation of BJP & the ‘Ram Mandir’ campaign which bolstered his popularity among the Hindu harliners. But he lacked the charisma and acceptability that Vajpayee enjoyed.
Narendra Modi
THE FAILED CHARMER: Many thought that the BJP had found the charismatic personality in him which was missing post Vajpayee. But his charm & magic was restricted to Gujarat. The star campaigner of the BJP failed to garner any extra support outside his stronghold. His unacceptability among other NDA parties, may dash his hopes of becoming the prime minister.
J Jayalalitha
OVER CONFIDENCE: Her overconfidence before elections was one of the biggest factors for not posting an impresssive performance. People were incredulous about the promises she made with regards to the ‘Tamil’ issue in Sri Lanka. Even a strong pre poll alliance could not help her to register a huge victory.
Mayawati
DELHI IS FAR AWAY: This election was a reality check for Mayawati. She still has a long way to travel, before she reaches Delhi. During the UP assembly elections, her ‘social enginneering’ earned her a thumping victory. But her failure to live up to their expectations, led to a disappointing performance this time around
The Yadavs (Mulayam, Lalu Prasad & Ram Vilas Paswan)
NO WHERE TO GO: Their selfish and arrogant aprroach pre elections has cost them dearly. Not only did they loose badly, but also lost out on an opportunity, of becoming a part of a stronger government at the centre. With all three out of power both at the centre & state, the future looks bleak.
Prakash Karat
BROUGH T TO THE GROUND: His dogmatic attitude and ideology, which is out of tune with reality has brought him & his party to the ground. His stand on the nuclear deal, which he potrayed as ‘anti- national’ and continous blackmailing during the UPA regime back fired. The masses taught him & his party a lesson.
Published on http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/slideshows/election-winners/manmohan-singh.html - 21st May 2009
http://www.behindindia.com/india-news-stories/slideshows/election-losers/l-k-advani.html - - 21st May 2009
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