MODI’S WIN IS THE BEGINNING OF BJP WAR

Narendra Modi has done it yet again! His emphatic win in the urban & rural local body elections may not be really surprising but the fact that over 100 Muslim & Christian candidates won on BJP ticket has come as a real stunner.

There is no doubt that Modi is the king on the Gujarat turf for the last one decade. And going by the current trend, Modi is the favorite to win comfortably in the 2012 Gujarat assembly elections. With the Congress still finding it difficult to resurrect itself in the state, there is little doubt that Modi will face any major challenge in winning the 2012 elections but Modi’s new strategy of fielding Muslim candidates in Muslim dominated areas has brought rich dividends and is also a clear indicator of Modi’s long term game plan.

This victory has also set the ball rolling for an even more intense battle that is brewing within the BJP. Modi has his sight clearly set on the 2014 General Elections. Modi’s biggest strength has been his pro- development image but his biggest negative still remains the Gujarat riots of 2002 which continue to haunt him. In order to change that perception of being an anti Muslim leader, Modi is now going all out to woo Muslims. During the last state assembly elections, Modi did attack Muslims indirectly. For instance he referred to General Musharraf of Pakistan as ‘Mian’ Musharraf (Mian is a urdu word used to refer to Muslims). He also hit out at the UPA government for investigating the Soharabbudin case & criticized the Congress for being the messiah for the Muslims. But it’s suddenly in the last two years or so that Modi is talking about developmental politics and criticizing vote bank politics. The irony is that Modi himself was induldged in vote bank politics until recently.

But 2014 will be very different from 2002. Modi realizes that the political issues that mattered ten years back are no more relevant for the common man. And most importantly there is a leadership crisis within the BJP. With so many factions within the party there is no clear second generation leader after Advani. Even thought the Sushma Swaraj- Arun Jaitley group seems to have an edge at the moment due to Advani’s backing, but the ground reality remains that Modi has been BJP’s most successful leader on the state level and Modi is now desperately trying to modify his image which just might come in his way to become the prime ministerial candidate of the party. Sushma Swaraj last week announced that Modi would not campaign in Bihar & also added that his ‘charisma’ & ‘magic’ may not work in Bihar. This clearly signals that Sushma wants to ensure that Modi does not move to national politics from state politics as that would weaken the Jaitley-Swaraj hold within the party. It is no secret that a huge faction within the BJP supports Modi’s candidature to spearhead the party campaign on the national stage.

It won’t be an easy task for Modi to let go off the anti-Muslim tag that has been attached to him from 2002. Even some strong allies of the NDA, especially the JD (U) which is led by Nitish Kumar will never join hands with the BJP if Modi is projected as the prime ministerial candidate. But Advani’s claim that Muslims are more economically empowered in Gujarat compared to any other state in the country was indirectly an appeal to the Muslim community to forgive Modi. This public appreciation for Modi by the BJP patriarch indicates that the party top brass still considers him as the strongest second generation leader. Whether he will be able to make the cut and pip other senior leaders is still to be seen. But the battle for 2014 within the BJP has definitely begun. But the real decider on this issue would eventually be the RSS.

RAHUL & SONIA'S NEW GAMEPLAN

Sonia and Rahul Gandhi’s recent political rhetoric to woo farmers and tribals gives a clear idea of Congress’s strategy for the coming four years before the general elections of 2014. Rahul’s staunch support for tribals against Anil Agarwal-owned Vedanta Group and Sonia’s support towards farmers has set the ball rolling for 2014 elections.

In the 2009 elections, three factors played a key role in bolstering Congress’s strength in the Lok Sabha:

1) The consolidated vote of the minorities, primarily the Muslims, which form 14% of the total votes.

2) The urban middle class voters, who traditionally voted for the BJP, overwhelmingly supported the Congress.


3) The Uttar Pradesh surprise where the party won 21 seats; thanks to the stupendous support it got from the farmers and Muslims. The Congress won 206 seats which were way better than the 2004 tally when they won only 145 seats. But, surprisingly, the UPA is finding it harder to cope with allies even though the ‘Left parties’ have become irrelevant this time around.

With Dr. Manmohan Singh serving his last term as the Prime Minister, the Gandhis realize that the call to make Rahul Gandhi as the next Prime Minister are going to get louder in 2014. Congress observers and insiders say that Rahul is very clear that he wants to head a Congress government without any coalition partners. And now, after regaining the confidence of Muslims and urban voters, the Congress wants to win the support of the remaining crucial vote banks.

Tribals form 8.2% of the total population of India according the 2001 census. Between 1947 and 2000, around 60 million people are estimated to have lost their means of livelihood in the name of development — of which a significant 40 per cent are tribal people. This initiative by the biggest political heavy weight - Rahul Gandhi is bound to get huge support among the tribals.

With over 65% of the population dependent on agriculture, the Congress does realize that farmers are not only a big vote bank but can turn the tide of any election. In the previous election - the farmers’ loan waiver scheme played a huge role in tapping the rural voters. Mamata’s political resurrection in West Bengal; thanks to the land acquisition issue and the farmers protest in Uttar Pradesh have a clear underlying message – take up the farmers’ prime cause and reap electoral benefits.

No wonder then that Rahul and Sonia have their objectives clear: to win the support of these two critical sections which will be instrumental to win a clear majority. But the peril of this strategy is that this could pose a worry for the middle class. In both these instances, it is the development and industrialization issues that will take a back seat and that may send a wrong message to the middle class which has been the biggest beneficiary of the Indian growth story. Though Rahul’s big strength is his popularity among the youth, the middle class gets easily wooed by symbolic gestures. Remember in the last election Dr. Manmohan Singh’s gamble to put his chair on the line for the nuclear deal did wonders for the Congress in urban centers.

The Gandhis are known to keep a close eye on the ground zero and they will try to strike a balance between development and social issues. But even a slight wrong footing could change the equation. It is a dangerous path that the mother-son duo is treading but risk is something that they are used to and this time it will be no different.