Narendra Modi has done it yet again! His emphatic win in the urban & rural local body elections may not be really surprising but the fact that over 100 Muslim & Christian candidates won on BJP ticket has come as a real stunner.
There is no doubt that Modi is the king on the Gujarat turf for the last one decade. And going by the current trend, Modi is the favorite to win comfortably in the 2012 Gujarat assembly elections. With the Congress still finding it difficult to resurrect itself in the state, there is little doubt that Modi will face any major challenge in winning the 2012 elections but Modi’s new strategy of fielding Muslim candidates in Muslim dominated areas has brought rich dividends and is also a clear indicator of Modi’s long term game plan.
This victory has also set the ball rolling for an even more intense battle that is brewing within the BJP. Modi has his sight clearly set on the 2014 General Elections. Modi’s biggest strength has been his pro- development image but his biggest negative still remains the Gujarat riots of 2002 which continue to haunt him. In order to change that perception of being an anti Muslim leader, Modi is now going all out to woo Muslims. During the last state assembly elections, Modi did attack Muslims indirectly. For instance he referred to General Musharraf of Pakistan as ‘Mian’ Musharraf (Mian is a urdu word used to refer to Muslims). He also hit out at the UPA government for investigating the Soharabbudin case & criticized the Congress for being the messiah for the Muslims. But it’s suddenly in the last two years or so that Modi is talking about developmental politics and criticizing vote bank politics. The irony is that Modi himself was induldged in vote bank politics until recently.
But 2014 will be very different from 2002. Modi realizes that the political issues that mattered ten years back are no more relevant for the common man. And most importantly there is a leadership crisis within the BJP. With so many factions within the party there is no clear second generation leader after Advani. Even thought the Sushma Swaraj- Arun Jaitley group seems to have an edge at the moment due to Advani’s backing, but the ground reality remains that Modi has been BJP’s most successful leader on the state level and Modi is now desperately trying to modify his image which just might come in his way to become the prime ministerial candidate of the party. Sushma Swaraj last week announced that Modi would not campaign in Bihar & also added that his ‘charisma’ & ‘magic’ may not work in Bihar. This clearly signals that Sushma wants to ensure that Modi does not move to national politics from state politics as that would weaken the Jaitley-Swaraj hold within the party. It is no secret that a huge faction within the BJP supports Modi’s candidature to spearhead the party campaign on the national stage.
It won’t be an easy task for Modi to let go off the anti-Muslim tag that has been attached to him from 2002. Even some strong allies of the NDA, especially the JD (U) which is led by Nitish Kumar will never join hands with the BJP if Modi is projected as the prime ministerial candidate. But Advani’s claim that Muslims are more economically empowered in Gujarat compared to any other state in the country was indirectly an appeal to the Muslim community to forgive Modi. This public appreciation for Modi by the BJP patriarch indicates that the party top brass still considers him as the strongest second generation leader. Whether he will be able to make the cut and pip other senior leaders is still to be seen. But the battle for 2014 within the BJP has definitely begun. But the real decider on this issue would eventually be the RSS.
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