MODI’S WIN IS THE BEGINNING OF BJP WAR

Narendra Modi has done it yet again! His emphatic win in the urban & rural local body elections may not be really surprising but the fact that over 100 Muslim & Christian candidates won on BJP ticket has come as a real stunner.

There is no doubt that Modi is the king on the Gujarat turf for the last one decade. And going by the current trend, Modi is the favorite to win comfortably in the 2012 Gujarat assembly elections. With the Congress still finding it difficult to resurrect itself in the state, there is little doubt that Modi will face any major challenge in winning the 2012 elections but Modi’s new strategy of fielding Muslim candidates in Muslim dominated areas has brought rich dividends and is also a clear indicator of Modi’s long term game plan.

This victory has also set the ball rolling for an even more intense battle that is brewing within the BJP. Modi has his sight clearly set on the 2014 General Elections. Modi’s biggest strength has been his pro- development image but his biggest negative still remains the Gujarat riots of 2002 which continue to haunt him. In order to change that perception of being an anti Muslim leader, Modi is now going all out to woo Muslims. During the last state assembly elections, Modi did attack Muslims indirectly. For instance he referred to General Musharraf of Pakistan as ‘Mian’ Musharraf (Mian is a urdu word used to refer to Muslims). He also hit out at the UPA government for investigating the Soharabbudin case & criticized the Congress for being the messiah for the Muslims. But it’s suddenly in the last two years or so that Modi is talking about developmental politics and criticizing vote bank politics. The irony is that Modi himself was induldged in vote bank politics until recently.

But 2014 will be very different from 2002. Modi realizes that the political issues that mattered ten years back are no more relevant for the common man. And most importantly there is a leadership crisis within the BJP. With so many factions within the party there is no clear second generation leader after Advani. Even thought the Sushma Swaraj- Arun Jaitley group seems to have an edge at the moment due to Advani’s backing, but the ground reality remains that Modi has been BJP’s most successful leader on the state level and Modi is now desperately trying to modify his image which just might come in his way to become the prime ministerial candidate of the party. Sushma Swaraj last week announced that Modi would not campaign in Bihar & also added that his ‘charisma’ & ‘magic’ may not work in Bihar. This clearly signals that Sushma wants to ensure that Modi does not move to national politics from state politics as that would weaken the Jaitley-Swaraj hold within the party. It is no secret that a huge faction within the BJP supports Modi’s candidature to spearhead the party campaign on the national stage.

It won’t be an easy task for Modi to let go off the anti-Muslim tag that has been attached to him from 2002. Even some strong allies of the NDA, especially the JD (U) which is led by Nitish Kumar will never join hands with the BJP if Modi is projected as the prime ministerial candidate. But Advani’s claim that Muslims are more economically empowered in Gujarat compared to any other state in the country was indirectly an appeal to the Muslim community to forgive Modi. This public appreciation for Modi by the BJP patriarch indicates that the party top brass still considers him as the strongest second generation leader. Whether he will be able to make the cut and pip other senior leaders is still to be seen. But the battle for 2014 within the BJP has definitely begun. But the real decider on this issue would eventually be the RSS.

WHAT IS THE NEW BJP?

Sushma Swaraj has taken over from LK Advani as the leader of the opposition, putting curtains on an exciting political journey stretching over 5 decades. Advani will be heading the BJP parliamentary board (a newly created post) & the NDA, none of them will have any significant bearing on the BJP political strategy. No matter how much the BJP shouts that Advani is still very much the main driver of the party, the reality remains that the Vajpayee-Advani era has finally come to an end.

But the big question remains- Is the new BJP leadership competent enough to resurrect the fortunes of the party that has been hammered comprehensively in the last 6 years. There are multiple challenges that the party still faces.


Who is the real leader?- Even though Sushma Swaraj is going to lead the party in the Lok Sabha & Arun Jaitley in the Rajya Sabha, there is still confusion as to who is the undisputed leader of the BJP. With the low profile Nitin Gadkari taking over as the BJP president; party workers are a bit disillusioned about the real leadership. The RSS handpicked Gadkari faces even more difficulties. He has been handpicked to implement the RSS agenda within the party, but with the Swaraj- Jaitley combine trying to adopt the moderate line of thought, infighting is bound to continue. The past 6 years have clearly shown that BJP has failed to work as a collective unit. The success they tasted in the 90’s was because they were led by a strong and commanding leader- A.B.Vajpayee. Vajpayee was the undisputed leader of the party. Of course he was never authoritative in his conduct and always took decisions after consulting Advani and other senior leaders. But the hierarchy was very clearly laid out, eliminating any sort of differences within the party. But with the current crop, there are no signs of any unity or cohesiveness.

The ideology issue- After suffering two back to back defeats in Lok Sabha elections, the very basic dilemma the party faces is the ideology issue. The party rode to power in the 90’s on the back of right wing Hindutva issue. But due to a huge coalition, the party was never able to deliver on that agenda. The Hindutva story was embraced to an extent in the 90’s. But the new millennium had changed the mind set of the Indian citizen. The staunch urban voter that supported the party in the 90’s now wanted development & infrastructure instead of Mandir & uniform civil code. The party failed to understand the pulse of the middle class voters which had transformed over the years. The new Indian voter was more secular & moderate in its thinking. And even now the party is confused which route to adopt-the more inclusive approach, one based on the development plank cutting across religious lines or to go back to the 90’s hindutva plank, which the voter has already rejected. They cannot afford to hang in between. They will have to choose a more forward looking ideology which is more inclusive in nature.

RSS: Liability or the Guiding force- The party will have to emphatically decide the role of the RSS in the new BJP. Will the RSS continue to set the agenda and have a say on all the major issues or is the party now ready to break those shackles and act on its own given that the party now has firm roots. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has made his intention clears that he wants the RSS to be the guiding force of the party. He wants the party to go back to the hard core Hindutva ideology to make a come back.

The new leadership’s immediate task is to come out with a clear ideology. The top leadership will have to be on the same page if they are serious about reviving the party. The party needs a complete revamp both on the organizational & ideological front. A clear hierarchy should be formed and it should be made sure that it is followed by all. The RSS has to be told that the party wants to work as an autonomous unit. If it fails to distance itself from the RSS at least on the political front, it would be really difficult for them to bounce back. BJP will have to clearly spell out the role of the RSS in the new BJP. These are some tough questions that the leaders will have to answer; otherwise the party will fade away in the same fashion as the Janta Dal party did in the 90’s. Time for the new BJP to take some tough decision… It’s now or never…

ADVANI- FALL OF THE GIANT

In the beginning of 1990’s when the Ram Mandir movement was at its peak, Advani symbolized ‘Hindutva’, which many thought would change the future course of this country. From being the poster boy of Hindutva to the controversial ‘home minister’ during the NDA regime to being the prime minister in the waiting, Advani has gone through plethora of highs & lows.

But unfortunately for Advani who once described himself as the prime minister in the waiting, that wait has ended on an eternal note. His 60 years political career is almost over on an all time low. The rising star of the BJP in the 90’s has been reduced to a leader minus authority of a directionless party. Advani build the BJP from the scratch to one of the biggest political party that is now struggling to keep afloat.



Over Shadowed by Vajpayee-The BJP from the time of its birth has relied completely on Vajpayee & Advani. Their personalities were quite contrasting from each other but they managed to build the party into a strong political entity. If Advani was the mass leader who created ripples by taking out the Rath yatra in 1990 that bolstered BJP’s electoral prospects, Vajpayee emerged as the liberal face of the right wing party and managed to lead a complex coalition for 6 years that helped BJP taste power for the first time. But there was a major difference between the 2 leaders…

Credibility Factor- What is it that made Vajpayee a more acceptable face even though Advani was considered a more natural leader due to his mass appeal? Vajpayee was a ‘consensus builder’ who had the charisma to not only unify his party but also various political outfits cutting across ideologies & regions. Even though BJP was a rightist, pro- hindutva party, it was Vajpayee’s credibility that brought various centrist & left inclined parties under the NDA government for 6 years. Advani was a respectful leader but not a credible one. And that is what went against him. It was his inconsistencies that led to his downfall rather then factionalism as many would believe.

The Ayodhya failure- During the ‘Ram Rath Yathra’ in the 1990's, Advani kept emphasizing that the Ram temple would be build only at the ‘exact site’ in Ayodhya and no where else. The Babri mosque was demolished in 1992 which he described as a tragic event but that did make him the darling of the hardliners. When the NDA did come to power, many within the BJP wanted him to be the PM to fulfill the Hindutva vision which he had campaigned for all this while. But he was not acceptable to other allies within the NDA due to his hardliner’s image. And when in power, he failed to push any of the promises he made which thrashed the aspirations of many hardliners. He lost their support from that time.

Controversial Administrator- His stint as the Home minister & Deputy PM were marked by controversies. He failed to act during the Gujarat riots when thousands were killed during the communal riots. The state was burning but Advani as the 'home minister' failed to control the situation. This did not go down well with his allies. The Kandahar hijacking was another question mark on his ability to deliver during crunch situations. His inability to act during tough time’s projected his image of a ’weak’ administrator who lacked the potential to lead this country.



The Jinnah Controversy- His Jinnah remarks were yet again another sign of inconsistency. A man who through out lived on the idea of ‘Akhand Bharat’ (Undivided India) suddenly called Jinnah, (the hate symbol for the BJP) a secular person is something that even the most liberal intellectuals couldn’t digest. He had to pay a price by stepping down from the post of BJP president. But this was a big gamble that Advani played in order to change his image among the masses. He knew in order to become PM he had to be a more liberal face like Vajpayee. That gamble failed with the 2009 election defeat. The biggest blow for him was the loss of RSS support, his backbone, which all this while projected him as the 'Mascot' of Hindutva

2009 Election Debacle- He gave his best during the 2009 elections. He raised the political temperature by hitting out directly on Manmohan Singh, who all this while discharged his duties silently. The idea of attacking Manmohan Singh on the personality issue rather than governance also went against him. In the personality clash, Dr Singh emerged as the winner thanks to Congress's thumping victory

The Rise of the Rebels- Advani’s decision to stick around for some more time made his position even more vulnerable. His decision to reward the likes of Jaitleys, Swarajs gave way for rebellion & indiscipline within the party. The rebels questioned his authority which had emaciated within the party.

The Jaswant Fiasco- The final nail in the coffin was the sacking of his old friend & loyalist, Jaswant Singh. Ironically Jaswant Singh was the only one to back him staunchly in 2005 for his Jinnah comments. In all fairness to Advani even if he wanted to defend Jaswant Singh, it was not possible because hardliners like Modi & Katiyar wanted some tough action. And Advani needed their support for survival at least till he makes a gracious exit.

Advani will no doubt be remembered as one of the strongest leaders who changed the face of Indian polity in the 1990's His political career was scripted by the RSS, which made him a hero. While Vajpayee made a gracious exit on his own terms, Advani had to be shown the door in a polite manner by the same RSS. Leaving a stable BJP behind would be the best way to say goodbye to his long & adventurous political career. He is known to be a fighter, but winning this final battle of his political career would be a task…