Sonia and Rahul Gandhi’s recent political rhetoric to woo farmers and tribals gives a clear idea of Congress’s strategy for the coming four years before the general elections of 2014. Rahul’s staunch support for tribals against Anil Agarwal-owned Vedanta Group and Sonia’s support towards farmers has set the ball rolling for 2014 elections.
In the 2009 elections, three factors played a key role in bolstering Congress’s strength in the Lok Sabha:
1) The consolidated vote of the minorities, primarily the Muslims, which form 14% of the total votes.
2) The urban middle class voters, who traditionally voted for the BJP, overwhelmingly supported the Congress.
3) The Uttar Pradesh surprise where the party won 21 seats; thanks to the stupendous support it got from the farmers and Muslims. The Congress won 206 seats which were way better than the 2004 tally when they won only 145 seats. But, surprisingly, the UPA is finding it harder to cope with allies even though the ‘Left parties’ have become irrelevant this time around.
With Dr. Manmohan Singh serving his last term as the Prime Minister, the Gandhis realize that the call to make Rahul Gandhi as the next Prime Minister are going to get louder in 2014. Congress observers and insiders say that Rahul is very clear that he wants to head a Congress government without any coalition partners. And now, after regaining the confidence of Muslims and urban voters, the Congress wants to win the support of the remaining crucial vote banks.
Tribals form 8.2% of the total population of India according the 2001 census. Between 1947 and 2000, around 60 million people are estimated to have lost their means of livelihood in the name of development — of which a significant 40 per cent are tribal people. This initiative by the biggest political heavy weight - Rahul Gandhi is bound to get huge support among the tribals.
With over 65% of the population dependent on agriculture, the Congress does realize that farmers are not only a big vote bank but can turn the tide of any election. In the previous election - the farmers’ loan waiver scheme played a huge role in tapping the rural voters. Mamata’s political resurrection in West Bengal; thanks to the land acquisition issue and the farmers protest in Uttar Pradesh have a clear underlying message – take up the farmers’ prime cause and reap electoral benefits.
No wonder then that Rahul and Sonia have their objectives clear: to win the support of these two critical sections which will be instrumental to win a clear majority. But the peril of this strategy is that this could pose a worry for the middle class. In both these instances, it is the development and industrialization issues that will take a back seat and that may send a wrong message to the middle class which has been the biggest beneficiary of the Indian growth story. Though Rahul’s big strength is his popularity among the youth, the middle class gets easily wooed by symbolic gestures. Remember in the last election Dr. Manmohan Singh’s gamble to put his chair on the line for the nuclear deal did wonders for the Congress in urban centers.
The Gandhis are known to keep a close eye on the ground zero and they will try to strike a balance between development and social issues. But even a slight wrong footing could change the equation. It is a dangerous path that the mother-son duo is treading but risk is something that they are used to and this time it will be no different.
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