HAS INDIA GIVEN AWAY THE ADVANTAGE?

Except for the initials of their first two names ‘SM’, there is nothing common between foreign ministers of India & Pakistan. SM Krishna is a soft spoken man who does not belief in tough & straight on the face talk but more in mild diplomatic tone of communication. His counterpart SM Qureshi on the other hand is far more aggressive and articulate in his communication. No wonder then that even before Krishna’s plane landed in New Delhi back from Islamabad, his counterpart in Pakistan Qureshi had quashed the Indo-Pak talks.

The problem with Indo-Pak talks has always been the hype surrounding these discussions. The media from both sides expect some sensational announcement that would change the future course of these two nations. So even if both sides make some small progress after series of talks, it takes just one issue to trample them..

Post 26/11, the scenario was gloom for a year before the Indian PM; Dr Manmohan Singh took the initiative to talk to Pakistan. The Sharm El Shaik fiasco did put Dr Singh under a lot of pressure but it was his personal agenda to make sure that the talks between the two sides do not derail.

But the biggest hurdle for Indo-Pak talks to make progress is India’s demand for action against the perpetrators of 26/11. Even if the Pakistan government is willing to take action against these suspects, it simply cannot. The plethora of dossiers submitted by India clearly points the finger at Hafiz Saeed. The Pakistan government did take some action by filing a case.But the courts could not convict him citing lack of evidence. But the Headley revelation has brought a new twist in the tale. The role of ISI (Which was in doubt all this while) in the attack has not only put Pakistan on the back foot but also jeopardized the peace talks.

The reason why Saeed is still a free man today is because the 26/11 attack was done with the full backing of the ISI. So even if the government tries to take action against Saeed, ISI won’t let that happen. The Pakistan army cannot afford to let ISI be pulled in this case as that would globally tarnish Pakistan’s image.

That is the key reason for the failure of the foreign ministers’ meeting. Given the recent turmoil in Kashmir, Pakistan got the license again to raise the Kashmir issue to distract the focus of the talks. So what does India do from here onwards?

There are three options India has from here.

First- Stop talks with Pakistan till it delivers on the 26/11 case. But then that leads to a deadlock again and wipes out all the progress made in the last few months.

Second- Push the US to pressurize Pakistan to take some action. But that’s again not going to fetch any positive result as US’s priority is Afghanistan for which it needs Pakistan. No wonder then that a fresh package of $500 million has been unveiled by Hillary Clinton for Pakistan. And the US has refused to publicly comment on ISI’s role in the 26/11 case.The reason- US is not in favour of declaring Pakistan a terrorist sponsored state.

Lastly- Opens talks on all issues including Kashmir with the hope that Pakistan would respond by taking some action in the 26/11 case.

The last option seems the only way ahead for India at the moment. But then by doing so India will again lose the diplomatic edge by taking more steps whereas Pakistan without taking any action against the 26/11 conspirators would be in a dominant position to drive the talks forward. It is clear from the statements made by the foreign minister that Pakistan is not desperate for talks with India.

Going to the United Nations with all the evidence collected against Pakistan will not be of much help as United States cannot allow any sanctions against Pakistan as that would deter its Afghanistan plans.

The only way ahead for India is to keep talking to Pakistan even if that means slow progress on the 26/11 front. Freezing the dialogue process will become a big problem at this stage. India should not hesitate to discuss all core issues as India would be in a much better position to handle the Kashmir issue rather then Pakistan which would find it difficult to not respond to the 26/11 case. The bottom line is that ups and downs have been part & parcel of Indo-Pak talks and the talks should continue.